《保险研究》20200108-《社保降费背景下城镇职工基本养老保险的收入再分配效应比较研究》(吕承超、赵红)

［摘   要］在社保降费背景下,本文构建精算模型,测度了社保降费前后不同省份、不同登记注册类型、不同行业、不同工资增长率和利率的城镇职工基本养老保险收入再分配效应,并进行比较分析。研究发现:社保降费前后城镇职工基本养老保险都发挥了正向的收入再分配效应,社保降费后无论是缴费现值和收益现值都比社保降费前减少了,此次改革更加有利于非私营单位低收入者；各省份养老保险收入再分配效应均为正,北京在所有省份中净转移额绝对值最大；东部地区具有最大的收入再分配效应,西部地区次之,然后是中部地区和东北地区；外商投资单位和信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业净转移额最大,其他内资单位内部收益率最大；当工资增长率不变时,利率水平越高,净转移额越大,但这种不断增大的边际效应存在递减规律；当利率不变时,随着工资增长率的不断提高,净转移额在不断下降,并且下降的幅度是不断增大的。

［关键词］社保降费；城镇职工基本养老保险；收入再分配效应

［基金项目］本文获得国家社科规划基金青年项目(17CJL031)资助。

［作者简介］吕承超,青岛科技大学经济与管理学院教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:社会保障理论与实践；赵红(通讯作者),青岛大学经济学院副教授,研究方向:财产保险精算。

A Comparative Study on the Income Redistribution Effect of Urban Workers′ Basic Pension Insurance under the Background of Premium Reduction

LV Cheng-chao，ZHAO Hong

Abstract：Under the background of social insurance premium reduction,this paper constructed an actuarial model to measure the redistribution effect of urban employees′ basic pension insurance before and after premium reduction for different provinces,different registration types,different industries,different wage growth rates and different interest rates,and conducted the comparative analysis. The study finds that the basic pension insurance for urban employees has exerted a positive income redistribution effect before and after premium reduction. After premium reduction,both the present value of the contribution and the present value of the proceeds are reduced. This reform is conducive to low-income people in non-private entities. The redistribution effect of basic pension insurance is positive in all provinces. Beijing has the largest absolute value of net transfer among all provinces;the eastern region has the largest income redistribution effect,followed by the western region,then the central region and the northeast region. Foreign-invested entities and information transmission,software and information technology service industries have the largest net transfer,while other domestic entities have the highest internal rate of return. When the wage growth rate is constant,the higher the interest rate,the larger the net transfer amount,but this increasing marginal effect decreases progressively;when the interest rate is constant,as the wage growth rate continues to increase,the net transfer amount declines and the magnitude of the decline keeps increasing.

Key words：social insurance premium reduction;basic pension insurance for urban workers;income redistribution effect