《保险研究》20200103-《出口信用保险对一般贸易的影响研究》（毛勤晶、卓志）

［摘   要］出口信用保险是政府为鼓励出口而实行的政策性金融制度安排,在我国对外贸易的发展中发挥了重要作用。但我国对外贸易存在典型的二元特征,出口信用保险对不同贸易模式的影响并不明确。本文基于新贸易理论,结合出口信用保险损失补偿、融资约束缓解、风险管理、宏观政策传导等不同政策性功能,研究了出口信用保险对不同贸易模式作用机制的差异。通过采用我国省级面板数据,证实了出口信用保险对于一般贸易的影响更大,为政府利用出口信用保险推动产业升级提供了新的有力证据。同时,本文考虑这种影响的非线性特征,通过实证检验发现出口信用保险对一般贸易具有显著的门槛效应。最后,本文提出了政策建议,要充分发挥出口信用保险政策性价值,更需聚焦于支持一般贸易出口,从而推动贸易转型升级。

［关键词］出口信用保险；一般贸易；促进作用；门槛效应

［基金项目］本文受到国家社会科学基金重点项目“巨灾保险精算模型研究”(16AZD019)资助。

［作者简介］毛勤晶,西南财经大学中国金融研究中心博士研究生,现供职于中国出口信用保险公司；卓志,经济学博士(后),西南财经大学教授、博士生导师。

A study on the Impact of Export Credit Insurance on Ordinary Trade

MAO Qin-jing,ZHUO Zhi

Abstract：Export credit insurance is a policy-based financial system for encouraging export and has been playing an important role in the development of China′s export trade. The exports of China have dualistic characteristics,which hide the different effects of the function of export credit insurance policy. Based on the new trade theory,and combined with the different policy functions of export credit insurance such as loss compensation,financing constraint mitigation,risk management,and macro policy transmission,etc.,this paper studied the mechanism differences of export credit insurance on different business modes and further expanded the research fields. Based on provincial panel data of China,this paper proved that export credit insurance promoted the ordinary trade more significantly than the processing trade,which provides strong new evidences for the use of export credit insurance to promote industrial upgrading. Furthermore,considering the non-linearity of the impacts,the paper also proved that export credit insurance had significant threshold effect on ordinary trade through empirical testing. The paper offered some policy suggestions that in order to fully explore the policy value of export credit insurance,we should focus on its support to ordinary trade,thereby promoting trade upgrading.

Key words：export credit insurance;the ordinary trade;promoting effect;threshold effect