《保险研究》20200102-《灾害冲击下贫困地区农村金融精准扶贫的政策选择——农业信贷还是农业保险》（张伟、黄颖、谭莹、徐静）

［摘   要］本文基于合理的假设条件,对政策性农业信贷和政策性农业保险这两种农村金融政策的扶贫效应进行了理论分析和模拟测算,研究发现：农业信贷虽然有可能提高贫困地区农民在无灾害条件下的收入上限,但同时也降低了灾害条件下的收入下限,当农民遭受极端自然灾害时,单一的农业信贷政策并没有发挥任何减贫效应,反而导致农民的纯收入出现了大幅下降；农业保险虽然在一定程度上降低了农民无灾害条件下的收入上限,但却显著提高了极端灾害条件下农民的收入下限,对于因灾致贫和因灾返贫具有很好的缓解作用。而对于因灾致贫和因灾返贫的农户来说,提高他们在极端条件下的收入水平是农村金融扶贫的重点。因此,在当前农村金融扶贫资金总量有限的情况下,建议政府将有限的财政资金用于提高贫困地区农业保险的保障水平,构建以农业保险为主、农业信贷为辅的农村金融精准扶贫机制。

［关键词］农业保险；农业信贷；农村金融；金融扶贫；精准扶贫

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973034),国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973046),教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(19YJA790116),广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2019A1515011892),教育部人文社科基金青年项目(15YJC790013),广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划2019年度共建课题(2019GZGJ112)。

［作者简介］张伟,广东金融学院华南普惠金融研究中心副研究员,研究方向：农业保险；黄颖,广东金融学院华南普惠金融研究中心助理研究员,研究方向：农村金融；谭莹(通讯作者),华南农业大学经济管理学院教授,研究方向：农业经济管理；徐静,广东金融学院华南普惠金融研究中心助教,研究方向：农业保险。

Policy Choice of Rural Finance-based Targeted Poverty Alleviation in Poverty-stricken Areas under Disaster Impact—Agricultural Credit VS Agricultural Insurance

ZHANG Wei,HUANG Ying,TAN Ying,XU Jing

Abstract：Based on reasonable assumptions,this paper theoretically analyzed and simulated the poverty alleviation effects of two kinds of rural financial policies: policy agricultural credit and policy agricultural insurance. The research finds that agricultural credit can improve the upper limit of income of farmers in poverty-stricken areas in a disaster-free situation,but also reduce the lower income limit under disaster conditions. When farmers suffer from extreme natural disasters,sole agricultural credit policy does not exert any poverty alleviation effect,but it leads to a sharp decline of the net income of farmers. Although agricultural insurance has reduced the income ceiling of farmers under disaster-free conditions to a certain extent,it has significantly increased the lower income limit of farmers under extreme disaster conditions,and has a better mitigation effect on poverty caused by disasters. For farmers lapsed into or back to poverty due to disasters,the focus of poverty alleviation through rural finance tools should be the increase in their income level under extreme situations. Therefore,the paper recommended government to use limited financial funds to improve the protection function of agricultural insurance in poverty-stricken areas,and build a rural financial poverty alleviation system with agricultural insurance at the core and agricultural credit as additional support.

Key words：agricultural insurance;agricultural credit;rural finance;financial poverty alleviation;targeted poverty alleviation