《保险研究》20200207-《商业健康险税收优惠政策的效果分析——基于需求价格弹性的测算》（朱铭来、仝洋）

［摘   要］本文基于经典商业健康险需求理论的价格弹性模型,分别利用天津市调研数据和中山大学劳动力动态调查数据库测算了按收入分层的商业健康险需求价格弹性及商业健康险的消费结构。并基于上述测算结果,通过数据库对接推算了全国商业健康险的需求价格弹性和税优政策的预期效果。测算结果表明,我国商业健康险的需求价格弹性为-0.22,在当前的税优政策下,个税税改前后,税优健康险的预期年保费规模分别为16.54亿元、6.09亿元,由此带来的年税式支出预计将分别达到2.47亿元、0.69亿元。最后,基于实证分析结果,本文对税优健康险未来的政策调整方向提供了建议。

［关键词］商业健康险；从价补贴率；需求价格弹性；税优效应

［基金项目］国家社科基金一般项目“职工基本医疗保险个人账户改革研究”(18BGL199)。

［作者简介］朱铭来,南开大学金融学院教授,博士生导师；仝洋,山西省地方金融监督管理局四级主任科员。

Analysis of the Effect of Tax Incentives for Commercial Health Insurance—Based on the Measurement of Demand Price Elasticity

ZHU Ming-lai,TONG Yang

Abstract：Based on the price elasticity model of classical commercial health insurance demand theory,the paper used the data of Tianjin survey and China Labor-force Dynamic Survey of SUN YAT-SEN University to calculate the price elasticity of demand for health insurance stratified by income and the consumption structure of commercial health insurance.With the above calculation results and the docking of the databases,we calculated the expected price elasticity of demand for the national commercial health insurance and the expected incentive effect of the tax policy.The calculation results show that the price elasticity of demand for China′s commercial health insurance is -0.22.Under the current tax policy,before and after the tax reform,the expected annual premiums for tax-advantaged health insurance are 1.654 billion yuan and 609 million yuan respectively.The annual tax expenditures brought by this is estimated to be 247 million yuan and 69 million yuan respectively.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,this article provides some suggestions on the adjustments to the policies on tax-advantaged commercial health insurance.

Key words：commercial health insurance;Ad valorem subsidy rate;price elasticity of demand;incentive effect of tax policy