《保险研究》20200206-《基于目标替代率的税延型商业养老保险扣除限额优化研究》（范堃、竺琦、钱林义、张楠）

［摘   要］我国养老保障体系三支柱发展严重失衡,为了缓解基本养老保险的压力,提升养老保险替代率,商业养老保险的发展迫在眉睫,税收递延型商业养老保险也开始试点。在2018年个税改革后,目前税收递延型商业养老保险推行办法下,中低收入群体无法享受实际税收优惠,高收入群体可享受的税收优惠有限且过低。本文以替代率为基准,根据精算平衡原理构建模型,对扣除限额进行优化研究,试图测算出与新个税办法匹配且有利于多层次收入水平的消费个体享受实际税优的扣除限额。同时,本文还对不同扣除限额下开始购买保险年龄、个税起征点、个人收益率及初始收入水平这四个参数变化对实际税优额的影响做了分析,得出所测算出的扣除限额的确较现行扣除限额更为合理,并提出了相关对策建议。

［关键词］养老保险；个税递延；替代率；税收优惠

［基金项目］本文受国家社科基金重大项目“大数据背景下健康保险的精算统计模型与风险监管研究”(批准号：17ZDA091)资助。

［作者简介］范堃,华东师范大学统计学院副教授,上海市晨光学者；竺琦,华东师范大学统计学院硕士研究生；钱林义,华东师范大学统计学院教授,博士生导师,上海市曙光学者；张楠(通讯作者),华东师范大学统计学院讲师。

Optimizing the Deduction Limit of Tax-deferred Commercial Pension Insurance Based on Target Substitution Rate

FAN Kun,ZHU Qi,QIAN Lin-yi,ZHANG Nan

Abstract：At present,the three pillars of the old age security system is gravely unbalanced in China.In order to alleviate the pressure of the first pillar and improve the substitution rate of pension insurance,faster development of commercial pension insurance is an imminent task.And China has begun to implement the pilot program of tax-deferred commercial pension insurance.The research finds that,after the reform on individual tax in 2018,the medium-to-low income groups are unable to enjoy any tax concession under the current implementation method of the tax-deferred pension plan,and the high-income groups can only enjoy very limited tax concession.This paper established a model based on the principle of substitution rate and actuarial balance,and explored on optimization of the deduction limit,aiming to come out with a deduction limit that both matched the new tax policy and enabled individuals with multi-level income enjoy actual tax concession.At the same time,this paper also made an analysis of the impacts of four parameters on the actual tax benefits under different deduction limits,namely,the starting age of insurance,the hurdle of individual tax collection,individual rate of return and the initial income level,and concluded that the deduction limits calculated were indeed superior to the current deduction limits,and put forward some pertinent suggestions.

Key words：pension insurance;personal tax deferral;substitution rate;tax concession