《保险研究》20200201-《政策性农业保险推广对农民收入的增进效应与作用路径解析——对渐进性试点的准自然实验研究》（马九杰、崔恒瑜、吴本健）

［摘   要］政策性农业保险作为重要的支农政策工具之一,除了起到农业风险管理作用之外,从长期来看还具有促进农民增收等效应。本文通过对已有文献进行梳理,讨论了政策性农业保险推广对农民收入增加的作用路径,并基于准自然实验的思路,将我国各省开展政策性农业保险试点作为外生冲击,利用2000～2016年的省级数据,使用渐进性双重差分的方法,评估政策性农业保险推广对农村居民收入以及收入结构的长期影响效果。研究发现,政策性农业保险试点对农村居民人均农业收入和人均非农收入的影响均是正向显著的,并且有助于区域内农村居民非农收入比重提高,这一效果随试点时间推进不断强化。此外,本文进一步检验了政策性农业保险推广对于城乡关系的间接效应,发现政策性农业保险试点对城镇居民收入的影响不大,对城乡收入差距缩小具有一定作用。

［关键词］政策性农业保险；农民收入；作用路径；准自然实验

［作者简介］马九杰,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院教授,研究方向:农村金融、发展经济学；崔恒瑜,中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院博士研究生,研究方向:政策性金融、农村金融；吴本健,中央民族大学经济学院副教授,研究方向:农村金融、反贫困、发展经济学。

Analysis of the Effect and Mechanism of Policy-oriented Agricultural Insurance′s Promotion on Farmers′ Income—A Quasi-natural Experimental Research on Progressive Pilots

MA Jiu-jie,CUI Heng-yu,WU Ben-jian

Abstract：As one of the important agricultural policy tools,policy-oriented agricultural insurance,in addition to its role in agricultural risk management,also has the effect of promoting farmers′ income in the long run.This paper sorted out the existing literature,and discussed the mechanism for policy-oriented agricultural insurance to increase rural residents′ income.Based on the idea of quasi-natural experiments,the empirical analysis took the policy-oriented agricultural insurance pilot as an exogenous shock.Using the provincial-level data from 2000 to 2016,the progressive difference in difference method was used to assess the impact of the policy-oriented agricultural insurance pilot on rural residents′ income and income structure.The study finds that the impact of the policy-oriented agricultural insurance pilot on rural residents′ agricultural income and non-agricultural income is positive significantly,and contributes to the increase in the proportion of non-agricultural income of rural residents,and the effect is continuously strengthened with the pilot time going on.In addition,this paper further tested its indirect effect and found that the policy-oriented agricultural insurance pilot had little effect on the income of urban residents and had certain effect on the narrowing of urban-rural income gap.

Key words：policy-oriented agricultural insurance;farmers′ income;mechanism path;quasi-natural experiment