《保险研究》20200309-《延迟退休对城镇职工养老保险收支影响的净效应估计——基于2025年起渐进式延迟退休年龄的假设》（刘万）

［摘   要］鉴于延迟退休对养老金收支有多重影响,本文假定2025年起以“每4年延迟1年”节奏,逐步将男(女)养老金正常领取年龄(NRA)从60(55)岁提高至2049年的65(60)岁,利用中国未来分年龄人口数的完整估计数据,估算了延迟退休对城镇职工基本养老保险收支影响的净效应。估算结果显示,延迟退休为2050年争取到了近25%的制度赡养比下降空间,养老压力高峰期大大推迟。无论延迟与否,未来养老金收支缺口规模都很大,但延迟退休对抑制缺口扩大仍有显著效果,特别是在短中期,每年的收支缺口会因此减少40％~70%,但2050年后的远期效果明显减弱。建议尽早实施渐次延迟退休,减少工作退休的强制性,尊重国情允许男女差龄退休；加强养老金财政补贴长期规划,减轻远期财政兜底压力；加强养老金缴费与受益的精算联系,大力提高基金投资效率等。

［关键词］延迟退休；养老金收支；缺口估计

［基金项目］西南政法大学十九大专项科研项目“新时代供给侧改革、养老金适度费负与社会养老保险制度可持续发展”(2017XZZXYB-25)；国家社科基金项目“渐进式延迟退休年龄政策研究”(14BRK006)。

［作者简介］刘万,西南政法大学经济学院、劳动经济研究中心副教授,主要研究方向:养老保障。

An Estimation of the Net Effect of Delayed Retirement on Income and Expenditure of the Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees—Based on the assumption that the progressive retirement delay starts from 2025

LIU Wan

Abstract：Retirement age delay has multiple effects on the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance.Based on China’s future population distribution for different ages,and assumed that the normal retirement age (NRA) for men (women) would be raised from the age of 60(55) in 2025 to 65(60) in 2049,the paper estimated the net effect on the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance for urban employees.The results show that,retirement age delay will lead to a nearly 25% decrease in the institutional support ratio by 2050,and significantly postpone the peak of pension payment pressure.No matter whether the retirement age is delayed or not,the pension fund deficit will be quite large,but the delayed retirement can effectively restrain the widening of the gap,especially in the short and medium term when the annual deficit can be reduced by 40~70%.But the long-term effect of reducing deficit after 2050 is significantly weakened.The paper suggests to implement the policy of progressive retirement age delay as soon as possible,reduce the mandatory retirement in employment,and allow the differential NRA between men and women in consideration of national conditions.Government should perfect long-term plans for pension subsidies to alleviate the pressure on the fiscal system,strengthen the actuarial relationship between contributions and benefits of pension,and improve vigorously the investment efficiency of pension fund.

Key words：delayed retirement;pension income and expenditure; gap estimates