《保险研究》20200303-《商业保险对居民消费影响研究——基于中国省级面板数据的经验证据》（南永清、贺鹏皓、周勤）

［摘   要］当前中国经济社会处于快速转型期,伴随着改革进程的不确定性风险日趋凸显,成为制约居民消费进一步扩张的重要因素。本文采用2003~2017年中国省级面板数据,考察了商业保险对居民消费行为的影响效应及其作用机制。研究发现,以商业保险密度和保险强度为表征的商业保险发展对居民消费有着显著正向影响,相较于农村居民消费,商业保险对城镇居民呈现更强的消费效应,同时财产保险消费效应明显高于人身保险对居民消费影响,进一步地,中介效应检验发现,不确定性缓解可能是商业保险影响居民消费的一个重要机制。基于此,本文认为，构筑完善的商业保险服务体系对于启动居民消费具有重要意义。

［关键词］商业保险；居民消费；不确定性

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金重大项目“供给侧结构性改革、异质性消费者行为与经济增长内生动力研究”(17ZDA038)；国家自然科学基金面上项目“异质性消费者的界定、行为度量及供需结构有效匹配研究”(71773063)；国家社会科学基金青年项目“我国家庭异质性消费行为研究”(18CJL045)。

［作者简介］南永清,南京审计大学政府审计学院讲师,经济学博士；贺鹏皓,南京审计大学政府审计学院讲师,经济学博士,审计署审计科研所博士后；周勤,东南大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师。

A Research on the Impact of Commercial Insurance on Individual Consumption—Empirical Evidences Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

NAN Yong-qing，HE Peng-hao，ZHOU Qin

Abstract：China's socio-economic development has entered a rapid transformation period.The risk of uncertainty along with the reform process become increasingly prominent,which has become an important factor restricting the further expansion of individual consumption.This paper examined the impacts of commercial insurance on consumer behaviors and its mechanism for exerting impacts by using China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017.The findings suggest that the development of commercial insurance characterized by the density and penetration of commercial insurance presents significantly positive impacts on individual consumption.Compared with rural residents' consumption,commercial insurance has a stronger consumption effect on urban residents,and the effect of property insurance is significantly higher than that of life insurance.Furthermore,the intermediary effect testing suggests that the uncertainty mitigation may be an important mechanism for commercial insurance exerting impacts on individual consumption.Based on this,we believe that enhancing the commercial insurance service system is of great significance to trigger off individual consumption.

Key words：commercial insurance; individual consumption; uncertainty