《保险研究》20200302-《新冠肺炎疫情对中国保险业的影响研究——基于非典的复盘与长短期影响分析》（许闲、刘炳磊、杨鈜毅）

［摘   要］本文基于张响贤等(2003)的非典分析框架,复盘2020年新冠肺炎疫情对中国保险业的影响,并且基于长短期的视角,从收入端、赔付端和投资端三个维度关注短期内疫情对保险业的影响,从商业逻辑、发展模式、产品创新和保险科技的四个角度关注长期影响。研究发现,新冠肺炎与非典疫情均给保险业带来正负面影响，但非典时间的负面影响在新冠肺炎时期被部分正面影响所中和；疫情短期内对保险业造成部分负面的冲击,但是整体冲击有限；新冠肺炎疫情将给保险业带来深远的影响,助推保险转型、信息化运用和“大国家大保险”等发展模式。

［关键词］新冠肺炎；公共卫生事件；保险发展；保险市场

［基金项目］本文感谢国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673050)的资助。

［作者简介］许闲(通讯作者)，复旦大学经济学院教授，复旦大学风险管理与保险学系主任；刘炳磊，复旦大学风险管理与保险学系研究助理，中国保险与社会安全研究中心研究助理；杨鈜毅，复旦大学风险管理与保险学系研究助理，中国保险与社会安全研究中心研究助理。

A Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on China's Insurance Industry—Based on the replay of SARS and its long-term and short-term impacts

XU Xian，LIU Bing-lei，YANG Hong-yi

Abstract：This paper analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the insurance industry based on Zhang et al.(2003)'s analytic framework of SARS.For the short-term impacts,the paper focused on three dimensions of premium income,loss compensation and investment,and for the long-term impacts,it mainly addressed the issue from the perspectives of business logic,development model,product innovation and insurance technology.It is found that,unlike the SARS in 2003,the negative impact of COVID-19 on the insurance industry is smaller than the indirect positive impact.COVID-19 will has a negative impact on the insurance industry in the short term,but the overall impact is limited.The outbreak of COVID-19 will have a far-reaching impact on the insurance industry,which is conducive to promoting the transformation of the insurance industry,the application of information technology and the “Big Country Big Insurance Industry” development model.

Key words：COVID-19; public health events; insurance development; insurance market