《保险研究》20200409-《机关事业单位养老保险隐性债务与转制成本测算》（薛惠元、王雅）

［摘   要］本文通过构建精算模型模拟测算机关事业单位养老保险的隐性债务与转制成本。研究发现:2015～2073年机关事业单位养老保险隐性债务总额现值(2015年初)为319862亿元,相当于2015年GDP的46.6%；转制成本总额现值为194071亿元,相当于2015年GDP的28.3%；将转制成本分摊到每一年中,2015～2073年各年非现值转制成本占当年GDP的比重呈先上升后下降的趋势,但最高不超过1.08%。建议从制度外进行筹资,采取多种方法和途径来偿还养老保险隐性债务；优化财政支出结构,节约的财政资金用于偿还养老保险隐性债务；探索更广泛的全国社会保障基金来源渠道；采用转制成本分摊法,逐年化解转制成本。

［关键词］机关事业单位；养老保险；隐性债务；转制成本

［基金项目］教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“机关事业单位养老保险隐性债务、基金缺口与财务可持续性研究”(批准号:16YJC630152)。

［作者简介］薛惠元,武汉大学社会保障研究中心副主任、副教授、硕士生导师,研究方向:养老保险、社会救助；王雅(通讯作者),四川大学公共管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:社会保障理论与政策。

Calculation of the Implicit Debts and Transition Costs of the Old-age Insurance for Employees in Government Organs and Institutions

XUE Hui-yuan,WANG Ya

Abstract：Through constructing actuarial models to simulate the implicit debts and transition costs of the old-age insurance for employees in government organs and institutions,the paper finds that:the present value (in early 2015) of the total implicit debts of the old-age insurance for employees in government organs and institutions during 2015-2073 is 31986.2 billion yuan,equivalent to 46.6% of GDP in 2015,while the present value of the total transition costs of that is 19407.1 billion yuan,equivalent to 28.3% of GDP in 2015;if amortizing the transition costs to each year,the proportion of non-present value transition costs to GDP of the year from 2015 to 2073 will increase first and then decline,but the maximum will not exceed 1.08%. It is recommended to raise funds from outside the system and adopt multiple methods and channels to repay implicit pension debts;optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and use the saved fiscal fund to repay implicit pension debts;explore broader sources of National Social Security Funds;adopt amortization method to absorb the transition costs annually.

Key words：government organs and institutions;old-age insurance;implicit debts;transition costs