《保险研究》20200507-《城镇职工基本养老保险降费空间的地区差异研究——基于参数匹配模型的比较静态分析》（郭秀云）

［摘   要］我国城镇职工基本养老保险缴费率存在明显的结构失衡,主要表现为费率的地区差异,以及政策缴费率、实际缴费率与参数匹配缴费率的背离。本文建立参数匹配模型,模拟测算中央调剂制度的费率调剂效应,以及扩大覆盖面、提高遵缴率和夯实缴费基数的参数优化效应。研究发现:中央调剂制度具有均衡地区费率的再分配效应；降费空间的扩面效应>基数效应>遵缴效应；地区之间缴费率的区间范围收窄,总体收敛趋势明显；“中位降费空间”模拟结果显示,多重效应相叠加,“当前替代率”水平下,有15个省份具备将单位缴费率降至16%的条件。省级统筹条件下的降费空间相对有限,全国统筹与优化参数双向施策,是解决结构失衡的有效途径。因此,应充分挖掘各地区降费潜力,规避地方的道德风险,以降低单位缴费率和调整缴费基数为契机,建立起降费与扩面、提高征缴能力的良性互动机制,研究制定基础养老金全国统筹方案,尽快实现基金统收统支。

［关键词］城镇职工基本养老保险；统筹账户；降费空间；参数匹配模型

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金重大项目“整体性治理——应对老龄社会的公共政策和公共管理体系重构研究”(71490735)；上海社科规划项目“‘双降’背景下上海城镇职工养老保险基金的潜在缺口及财政风险研究”(2019BGL006)。

［作者简介］郭秀云,华东政法大学政治学与公共管理学院教授、博士生导师,研究方向:社会保障与公共政策。

Regional Difference for Lowering Contribution Rate of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees—A Comparative Static Analysis with Parameter Matching Model

GUO Xiu-yun

Abstract：There has been obvious structural imbalance of the basic pension insurance contribution rates of urban employees in China,which mainly refers to the regional difference and the deviation of the policy and actual contribution rates from the parameter matching rate. This paper established a parameter matching model to simulate the rate adjustment effect of central regulation system and the parameter optimization effect of expanding coverage,increasing compliance rate and solidifying the payment base. The results show that the central regulation system has the redistribution effect that balances the rates of different regions. Among the effects of the space of contribution reduction,the coverage expansion effect exceeds the base effect which then exceeds the compliance effect. The range of the regional contribution rates is narrowed and has an obvious overall convergence. According to the simulation results of "median reduction space",with the present replacement rate,there are 15 provinces qualified to reduce the contribution rate to 16% because of the overlapping of multiple effects. Under the condition of provincial pooling,there is limited reduction space for contribution rate. National overall planning and parameter optimization are the effective ways to solve the structural imbalance. We should fully exploit the potential of rate reduction in different regions while guarding against local moral hazard. Taking the opportunity of lowering enterprise contribution rate and adjusting contribution base,we should set up a healthily interactive mechanism of reducing contribution,expanding the coverage and enhancing the collection capability. We should also study and formulate a national pooling plan for basic pension insurance to collect and utilize the pension funds uniformly as soon as possible.

Key words：basic pension insurance for urban employees;pooling account;reduction space for contribution rate;parameter matching model