《保险研究》20200504-《风险因素、经营特征对规模农户水稻收入保险响应意愿的影响——基于江苏省33个县的经验证据》（林乐芬、李远孝）

［摘   要］目前我国探索完善市场化农业生产风险分散机制的条件已初步具备,全面提升农业保险供给能力的呼声也日益增高,收入保险是我国农业保险创新的有益尝试。本文基于江苏省调研数据,运用二元logit模型对规模农户水稻收入保险响应意愿进行了实证研究，结果表明:受灾次数和经历的水稻价格重大下跌次数对规模农户水稻收入保险响应意愿有着显著正向影响,经营特征也正向促进水稻收入保险响应意愿。ISM模型表明规模农户的经营特征是水稻收入保险响应意愿的驱动因素,风险因素为中间层因素,传统水稻产量保险的弥补成本百分比和水稻收入保险条款可理解性是最高层因素。因此,须着手系统化收集水稻的受灾损失历史数据,健全水稻价格信息采集发布机制,重视规模农户水稻种植成本、单产数据的积累,优先在平均受教育程度较高、规模经营特征明显、产量价格等数据保存较好的地区进一步深入推广水稻收入保险的试点工作。

［关键词］风险因素；经营特征；水稻收入保险；规模农户响应意愿

［作者简介］林乐芬(通讯作者),南京农业大学金融学院农业保险研究所所长,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:农村金融与保险；李远孝,南京农业大学金融学院硕士研究生,研究方向:农村金融。

The Impact of Risk Factors and Operational Characteristics on the Willingness of Scale Farmers to Purchase Rice Revenue Insurance—Based on the Empirical Evidence of 33 Counties in Jiangsu Province

LIN Le-fen,LI Yuan-xiao

Abstract：In China,there are now primary conditions for exploring and perfecting the market-oriented agricultural production risk spread mechanism. The appeals for increasing the supply capacity of agricultural insurance is getting stronger day by day. The pilot project of rice revenue insurance is a viable attempt at agricultural insurance innovation in China. Based on the survey data of scale farmers in Jiangsu Province,this paper made an empirical study on the responsiveness of scale farmers to purchase rice revenue insurance by using the binary Logit model. The results show that the number of disasters and sharp rice price drops has a significant positive impact on the willingness of scale farmers to respond to rice revenue insurance,and the operational characteristics are also positively correlated to the farmer′s responsiveness to rice revenue insurance. The ISM model shows that the operating characteristics of scale farmers are the driving factor of the farmers′ responsiveness,risk factors are intermediate factors,and the percentage of compensation cost of traditional rice yield insurance and the understandability of rice revenue insurance clauses are the top factors. Therefore,it is necessary to systematically collect historical data of rice disaster losses and improve the mechanism of rice price information collection and publication. Emphasis should be placed on the accumulation of rice planting cost and unit yield data of scale farmers,giving priority to further popularizing the pilot work of rice revenue insurance in areas with higher average education level,obvious scale operation characteristics,and better preservation of yield and price data.

Key words：risk factors;operational characteristics;rice revenue insurance;scale farmers′ willingness to responde