《保险研究》20200608-《缴费率下调会增加养老保险的财政责任吗？》（曾益、李晓琳、张冉）

［摘   要］2019年我国出台一系列“减税降费”政策,如城镇职工基本养老保险政策缴费率降至24%。随着老龄化程度加深,城镇职工基本养老保险财政责任不断增加。那么,政策缴费率下调一定会增加城镇职工基本养老保险财政责任吗？本文运用精算模型研究发现:若政策缴费率未下调,养老保险基金于2032年开始出现累计赤字,2032~2050年财政需承担17862.47亿元~166313.07亿元的责任,现值之和为786208.08亿元；当政策缴费率下调降至24%,养老保险基金仍于2032年开始出现累计赤字,与政策缴费率未下调的情况相比,2032年的财政责任下降72.27%,2033~2050年的财政责任上升10.93%~29.17%；进一步实施征收体制改革、延迟退休、扩面等政策后,与前一种情况相比,财政责任现值之和会下降2.64%~100%。政策缴费率下调在短期内会减少城镇职工基本养老保险财政责任,但在中长期内会增加财政责任；当引入征收体制改革、延迟退休、扩面等政策,有助于缓解财政压力。

［关键词］减税降费；养老保险；财政责任；政策模拟

［基金项目］国家社科基金后期资助项目《老龄化背景下职工医疗保险基金可持续性研究》(编号:19FRKB002)；中央高校基本科研业务费项目《“减税降费”背景下缴费率下调对职工养老保险财政责任的影响研究》(编号:2722020JCT028)、《“减税降费”政策背景下城镇职工基本养老保险缴费率下调对工资水平的影响》(编号:202051232)。

［作者简介］曾益,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:社会保险精算；李晓琳(通讯作者),中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生,E-mail:940389279@qq.com；张冉,中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生。

Will the Reduction of Contribution Rate Increase the Fiscal Responsibility for Social Pension Insurance?

ZENG Yi,LI Xiao-lin,ZHANG Ran

Abstract：China introduced a series of tax cuts and fee reductions policies in 2019,for example,the contribution rate of social pension insurance for urban employees was reduced to 24%. However,with the trend of population aging,fiscal subsidies for social pension insurance for urban employees continue to rise. Accordingly,will the reduction of the contribution rate necessarily increase financial responsibility for the pension insurance? This paper used actuarial models to achieve the following findings. With the contribution rate unchanged,the social pension fund will get into deficit in 2032,and the government will need to subsidize the fund annually for about 1786.247 to 16631.307 billion Yuan (the sum of the present value is 78620.808 billion Yuan) during 2032 to 2050. When the policy contribution rate is reduced to 24%,the social pension fund will still get into deficit in 2032. Compared with the case of contribution rate being unchanged,the fiscal subsidy in 2032 will decrease by 72.27%,and fiscal subsidies during the years of 2032 to 2050 will increase from 10.93% to 29.17%. After further implementation of policies such as the collection mechanism reform,the postponement of retirement age and expanding the coverage of social pension insurance,the sum of the present value of financial subsidies will decrease by 2.64%-100% compared with the previous case. In summary,the reduction of the contribution rate will reduce the financial responsibility for social pension insurance in the short term,but it will increase the fiscal responsibility in the medium and long term. When introducing policies such as the collection mechanism reform,postponement of retirement age and expanding the coverage of social pension insurance,the fiscal pressure will be alleviated.

Key words：tax cuts and fee reductions；social pension insurance；fiscal responsibility；policy simulation