《保险研究》20200606-《奶牛保险对养殖户疫病风险防控投入的影响研究》（张旭光、赵元凤）

［摘   要］农业保险对农户生产行为的影响一直以来都是学界及业界比较关注的话题之一。一方面,人们在探讨如何更好地发挥奶牛保险“正向”经济补偿功能,另一方面,伴随着不断“扩面”的发展要求,奶牛保险是否会对养殖户疫病风险防控行为产生显著“负向”影响的讨论也在逐渐增多。尤其,在当前我国奶业升级亟需保险机制“保驾护航”的背景下,更需要基于现行奶牛保险政策特点及奶牛养殖实际,开展有关奶牛保险政策疫病风险防范作用的探讨。鉴于此,本文在理论分析的基础上,通过对内蒙古500户奶牛养殖户的实地调查,应用TEM两阶段估计法和联立方程极大似然法(MLE),实证检验奶牛保险政策对养殖户疫病风险防控投入的影响。研究结果表明:当前我国只针对“奶牛死亡损失”,进行“低保障”赔付的奶牛保险政策,对养殖户疫病风险防控投入的影响并不显著。养殖户的奶牛保险政策参与,尚不会导致其消极进行疫病风险防控投入,反映出道德风险问题在当前条件下并不是我国大力发展奶牛保险政策的主要障碍。

［关键词］奶牛保险；疫病风险；风险防控；养殖户；道德风险

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金(71563037)；内蒙古农业大学高层次人才引进科研启动项目(NDYB2016 -27)。

［作者简介］张旭光,内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院讲师、博士,研究方向:农村金融与保险；赵元凤(通讯作者),内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院教授、博士生导师,研究方向:农业保险、农业信息化、农产品质量安全。

A Study on the Impact of Dairy Cattle Insurance on Farmers′ Input into Epidemic Risk Prevention

ZHANG Xu-guang,ZHAO Yuan-feng

Abstract：The impact of agricultural insurance on farmers′ production behaviors has always been an interesting topic among academic and insurance industry circles. On the one hand,there is the discussion on how to give full play to the "positive" economic compensation function of dairy cattle insurance. On the other hand,in the face of coverage expansion requirements,there is increasing discussion on whether dairy cattle insurance has a significant "negative" impact on farmers′ epidemic risk prevention behaviors. In particular,under the background of the urgent need for the insurance mechanism to provide guarantee for the upgrading of China′s dairy industry,it is even more important for us to carry out the study on the epidemic prevention role of dairy cattle insurance based on the characteristics of current dairy cattle insurance policy and the actual situation of dairy industry. In view of this,on the basis of theoretical analysis,and the field survey of 500 dairy farmers in Inner Mongolia,this paper used the TEM two-stage estimation method and MLE to empirically test the impact of dairy cattle insurance on the epidemic risk control investment of dairy farmers. The results show that the current dairy cattle insurance program with “low compensation” only for "the death loss of dairy cows" has no significant impact on farmers′ investment in epidemic risk prevention. Farmers′ participation in dairy cattle insurance program doesn′t lead to their passive epidemic risk prevention input,which reflects that moral hazard is not the main obstacle to the development of dairy cattle insurance in China under the current situations.

Key words：dairy cattle insurance;epidemic risk prevention;dairy farmer;moral hazard