《保险研究》20200803-《工业化、城镇化、老龄化与保险发展——理论分析与实证检验》（张宗军、令涛）

［摘   要］保险的需求由风险形成、经济能力、保险意识三方面共同决定。可保风险的存在是形成保险的必要条件,经济负担能力是消费者购买保险的充分条件,保险意识是潜在保源转化为现实消费的市场开关。由此,本文建立了一个由工业化、城镇化、老龄化三位一体的风险传导和保险形成机制,并选择合适的变量,通过1990～2017年的面板数据，分别对44个国家、16个发达国家、28个发展中国家,以及亚太和欧洲两个区域发达国家和亚洲、美洲、非洲三个区域的发展中国家进行了实证检验。结果表明，不同类型、不同区域国家保险需求的差异性根本上源自于其工业化水平、城镇化质量和老龄化程度,而不是取决于GDP,其他变量对保险需求的作用上也表现出不同程度的差异性。这对国内保险业高质量发展带来了重要启示。

［关键词］工业化；城镇化；老龄化；保险需求；比较分析

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金(项目编号:71963023)；甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目(项目编号:2020C-28)。

［作者简介］张宗军,兰州财经大学教授,研究方向:商业保险；令涛,兰州财经大学硕士研究生。

Industrialization,Urbanization,Population Aging and Insurance Development—Theoretical analysis and empirical test

ZHANG Zong-jun,LING Tao

Abstract：The demands of insurance are decided by formation of risk,affordability and insurance awareness.The insurable risk is the necessary condition to form insurance,the economic affordability is the sufficient condition for consumers to purchase insurance,and the insurance awareness is the market switch turning potential insurance source to actual consumption.Therefore,we established a triad mechanism consisting of three major factors of industrialization,urbanization,and population aging to explain the risk transmission and insurance formation.By selecting appropriate variables,the paper conducted an empirical test on the insurance demands of 16 developed countries and 28 developing countries through the panel data from 1990 to 2017.These selected countries covered Asia,Europe,America and Affric.The results show that the difference of insurance demand among different countries and regions is due to their differences in the level of industrialization,the quality of urbanization and the degree of population aging,but not due to the GDP.The effect of other variables on insurance demand is also different to various extents.This can serve as important enlightenment to the high-quality development of the domestic insurance industry.

Key words：industrialization;urbanization;population aging;insurance demand;comparative analysis