《保险研究》20200909-《省际社会保障财政支出与经济实力非一致性影响因素研究——来自模糊集定性比较分析的解释》（马桑）

［摘   要］本文利用模糊集定性比较分析方法,研究中国省际层面社会保障财政支出与经济实力的非一致性问题,以厘清我国地方政府社会保障投入背后的多重复杂因素。实证结果表明:中央政府对于西部地区的强转移支付力度是西部各省人均社会保障财政支出超出自身财政能力的主要原因。而另外一些转移支付依赖程度不高的辽宁、重庆等地区,因其老年人口抚养比很高,也会迫使当地政府对社会保障投入大量的财政资金。此外,中西部一些地区社保财政超前投入的主因是当地政府在财政支出方面一直是偏向公共服务类型的。因此,“转移支付助推”是中国省级政府社会保障投入超实力的外部诱致性因素,“老龄化”是外部压力性因素,而“政府公共服务支出偏向”则是内部自发性因素。

［关键词］社会保障超实力投入；fsQCA分析法；人均社会保障财政支出；人均GDP

［基金项目］本文是国家社会科学基金项目(17BGL048)、国家社会科学基金项目(19FGLB063)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］马桑,云南大学政府管理学院教授、硕士生导师,研究方向:财政学、社会保障、行为公共管理。

A Research on Influencing Factors on Inconsistency of Inter-provincial Social Security Fiscal Expenditure and Economic Strength—An explanation from the qualitative comparative analysis of fuzzy sets

MA Sang

Abstract：This article used the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analytical method to study the inconsistency of inter-provincial social security fiscal expenditure and economic strength in order to reveal various complicated factors behind local governments′ input into the social security program.The empirical results show that the central government′s strong transfer payments to the western region are the main reason that their per capita social security fiscal expenditure exceeds their local fiscal strength.Other regions such as Liaoning and Chongqing that are not highly dependent on transfer payments are also forced to input large amounts of financial funds in their social security programs due to the high dependency ratio of the elderly population.In addition,the main reason for the advance investment in social security programs in some central and western regions is because these local governments have always been biased towards public services in terms of fiscal expenditure.Therefore,“transfer payment boost” is an external inducing factor leading to their social security input exceeding the means of some provincial governments,“aging population” is an external pressure factor,and “government public service expenditure bias” is an internal spontaneous factor.

Key words：social security input beyond capacity;fsQCA analytical method;social security financial expenditure per capita;GDP per capita