《保险研究》20201003-《我国区域普惠保险水平测度及影响因素分析》（尹晔、许闲、王颖俐）

［摘   要］普惠保险是我国决胜脱贫攻坚战的重要手段,普惠保险发展水平的指数化测度是研究普惠保险助力脱贫攻坚机制的基础。本文从保险渗透性、可得性和使用性角度选取指标,使用变异系数法确定权重,构建了我国2007年至2017年省级普惠保险指数。普惠保险指数显示,2007年至2017年,我国普惠保险发展水平不断提高,2017我国普惠保险水平是2007年的2.5倍,2013年之前,我国东部与中西部普惠保险发展趋势平行,2013年以后,中西部普惠保险发展速度快于东部。本文使用双重差分验证了2013年出台的普惠保险政策及其后不断加大的财政支持力度是造成这一现象的原因,平行趋势检验显示,该政策具有1年的时滞。本文建议,为了促进区域均衡发展,我国应加大普惠保险政策支持力度,对于部分地区实行适当政策优惠,并保持政策定力,建立长效考核机制。

［关键词］普惠保险；指标构建；双重差分

［基金项目］本文研究受国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于风险经验认知的巨灾保险需求研究”(71673050)；国家社会科学基金项目“互联网保险财务风险预警与化解研究”(17BGL050)资助。

［作者简介］尹晔,复旦发展研究院中国保险与社会安全研究中心研究助理；许闲,教授,复旦大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系主任；王颖俐,复旦发展研究院中国保险与社会安全研究中心研究助理。

The Measurement of Regional Inclusive Insurance Level of China and The Analysis of Influencing Factors

YIN Ye,XU Xian,WANG Ying-li

Abstract：The promotion of inclusive insurance is an important strategy for winning the battle against poverty in China. The measurement of the development level of inclusive insurance is the basis for studying the mechanism of inclusive insurance helping poverty alleviation. This paper selected indicators from the perspectives of insurance penetration,availability and usability,and used the coefficient of variation method to determine the weight,thus constructed China′s provincial inclusive insurance index from 2007 to 2017.The inclusive insurance index shows that the development level of China′s inclusive insurance is constantly improving from 2007 to 2017. The level of inclusive insurance index in 2017 is 2.5 times that of 2007. Before 2013,the development of inclusive insurance index in eastern China is parallel to that in central and Western China. After 2013,the central and western China has a faster growth than that of the east. This paper used the difference in difference method to demonstrate that the inclusive insurance policy issued in 2013 and the constantly strengthened fiscal support afterwards were the reasons for this phenomenon. The parallel trend test shows that the policy has a one-year time lag. This paper suggests that in order to promote balanced regional development,China should strengthen the policy support for inclusive insurance,implement appropriate preferential policies for some regions,maintain policy consistency,and establish a long-term assessment mechanism.

Key words：inclusive insurance;indicators design;Difference in Difference