《保险研究》20210106-《降费综合方案下企业职工基本养老保险财政风险预警》（杨再贵、陈肖华）

［摘   要］财政对城镇职工基本养老保险的补贴在逐年迅速递增,财政风险亟待掌握。《降低社会保险费率综合方案》同时调整了养老保险单位缴费率和平均工资计算口径。本文根据该文件并考虑参保人缴费不都连续、缴费工资低于统计工资等等实际情况,构建企业职工基本养老保险收支结余精算模型。对比降费有关三种情形对企业职工基本养老保险财务状况的影响,发现降费综合方案虽然在预测前期少数年份会使财务状况有所恶化,但在预测期的大多数年份都能抑制财务状况恶化的势头。基于该方案的实施,设置低、中、高情景预测基本养老保险未来75年间各年的财政风险,发现在不计财政补贴的情况下,无论何种情景,预测期内都会出现支付缺口,且财政风险随年份推移快速上升。建立财政风险预警机制已刻不容缓。故选择预警指标,设立预警级别,评估各级预警的年份区间。考察延迟退休、全面二孩等因素对关键预警指标和预警年份区间的影响,为缓解财政风险提出政策建议。

［关键词］企业职工；养老保险；降费综合方案；财政风险；预警

［基金项目］本文得到国家社会科学基金项目“基于Lee-Carter模型的企业职工基本养老保险的财政风险预警指标研究”(编号:16BJY143)和高等学校学科创新引智计划(B17050)的支持。

［作者简介］杨再贵,中央财经大学中国精算研究院教授、博士生导师、社保精算研究中心主任,研究方向:社保精算；陈肖华,中央财经大学中国精算研究院博士研究生,研究方向:社保精算。

Early Warning on the Fiscal Risk of the Basic Old-Age Insurance for Enterprise Employees under Comprehensive Scheme for Reducing Social Insurance Contribution Rates

YANG Zai-gui,CHEN Xiao-hua

Abstract：Fiscal subsidies for basic old-age insurance for urban employees are increasing rapidly year by year,and it is imminent to control the fiscal risk.The “Comprehensive Scheme for Reducing Social Insurance Contribution Rates” adjusts simultaneously the employer’s pension contribution rate and the average salary calculation caliber.According to the document and considering the inconsistent contributions of participants and the lower contribution salary than the statistical salary,etc.,this paper developed an actuarial model for the balance between income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees.By comparing the impacts of three scenarios on the financial situation of basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees,we find that the comprehensive scheme will make the financial situation worse in several years of the early prediction period,but can effectively slow down the trend of financial deterioration in most years of the whole prediction period.Based on the implementation of the comprehensive scheme,the low,medium and high scenarios are set to assess annual fiscal risk of the basic old-age insurance in the next 75 years.The results show that in the absence of fiscal subsidies,no matter what scenario,there will be a payment gap in the forecast period,and the fiscal risk will rise rapidly with the passing of the year.Thus,it is urgent to establish the early warning of the fiscal risk.After selecting early warning indicators,setting early warning levels and evaluating the year interval for each early warning level,we examined the effects of the factors such as postponed retirement,full two-child policy,etc.on the key early warning indicators and the year interval of early warning.Finally,we proposed targeted policy recommendations to alleviate the fiscal risk of the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees.

Key words：enterprise employee;old-age insurance;comprehensive scheme for reducing social insurance contribution rate;fiscal risk;early warning