《保险研究》20210102-《保险平滑政府自然灾害涉灾支出波动风险研究——以地震巨灾财政指数保险为例》（刘玮、郭静）

［摘   要］我国重大自然灾害频发,导致政府财政救灾与灾后重建等涉灾支出波动较大,影响经济平稳运行,探索平滑财政涉灾支出波动风险的机制具有重要的现实意义。本文通过构建政府财政对地震巨灾救灾与重建支出负担积累模型,根据我国1990~2018年的地震损失数据,预测2019~2026年地震巨灾财政指数保险不同保险金额下,我国地震巨灾财政涉灾支出负担积累的变动情况,并以此检验保险可以平滑财政涉灾支出波动风险①的效果。研究结果表明:政府购买地震巨灾财政指数保险可以有效地平滑财政涉灾支出波动性风险,且波动性随着地震巨灾财政指数保险赔付的增加而减小；当地震巨灾财政指数保险保额分别为50亿元、100亿元、150亿元和200亿元时,可以使财政涉灾支出负担积累分别下降0.0019%、0.0028%、0.0033%和0.0047%。鉴于此,目前我国部分地区实施的巨灾财政指数保险试点可以起到平滑财政涉灾支出的波动性风险,具有推广性。

［关键词］财政涉灾支出；地震巨灾；巨灾财政指数保险

［基金项目］天津市哲学社会科学规划项目“天津市城市公共安全与突发重大环境灾害风险评价与保险制度创新设计”(TJYY16-005)。

［作者简介］刘玮,南开大学金融学院风险管理与保险学系教授、博士生导师,南开大学灾害风险管理与巨灾保险研究中心主任；郭静,南开大学金融学院保险学专业博士研究生。

A Study on Smoothing the Fluctuation Risk of Government Expenditure Related to Natural Disasters by Insurance—Take Earthquake Catastrophe Fiscal Index Insurance as an Example

LIU Wei,GUO Jing

Abstract：The frequent occurrence of major natural disasters in China leads to large fluctuations in government fiscal expenditure related to disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction which affects the stable operation of the economy.It is of great practical significance to explore a mechanism to smooth the fluctuation risk of disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction fiscal expenditure.This paper built an earthquake disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction expenditure cumulative burden model,and projected the earthquake disaster expenditure burden in China under different sums of insured of earthquake catastrophe fiscal index insurance for 2019-2026 based on China’s earthquake loss data from 1990 to 2018,and further tested the effect of insurance on smoothing the fiscal expenditure volatility risk.The research results show that by purchasing earthquake catastrophe fiscal index insurance,the government can effectively smooth the volatility risk of fiscal disaster relief expenditure,and the volatility decreases with the increase of insurance compensation of the insurance plan.When the earthquake catastrophe fiscal index insurance coverage is 5 billion yuan,10 billion yuan,15 billion yuan,and 20 billion yuan,the cumulative burden of fiscal disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction expenditure can be reduced by 0.0019%,0.0028%,0.0033%,and 0.0047%,respectively.In view of this,this paper concludes that the catastrophe fiscal index insurance can smooth the volatility risk of fiscal disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction expenditure in some areas of China,and it is significant to promote this insurance on a larger scale.

Key words：fiscal expenditure on disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction;earthquake catastrophe;catastrophe fiscal index insurance