《保险研究》20210208-《财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡？——基于收支二维视角的分析》（汪润泉、鲁於、刘玉萍）

［摘   要］基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失；财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求；制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。

［关键词］养老保险；基金失衡；财政分权；提前退休；征缴效率

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金青年项目“高质量发展视角下社会保险费率调整与就业促进的互动机制研究”(71904076)；江苏省高校哲学社会科学一般项目“养老保险制度的提前退休效应及其干预机制研究”(2019SJA0247)。

［作者简介］汪润泉,南京财经大学社会保障研究院讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向:社会保险与就业;鲁　於,南京审计大学政府审计学院讲师,研究方向:社会保障审计；刘玉萍,上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,博士研究生,研究方向:财政社会保障。

How Does Fiscal Decentralization Exacerbate the Imbalance of Pension Insurance Funds?——An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Revenue and Expenditure

WANG Run-quan,LU Yu,LIU Yu-ping

Abstract：Fund imbalance is the dilemma faced amid the reform of pension system parameters at present.This paper constructed the explanatory framework of fund imbalance from the perspective of fiscal decentralization,and made an empirical test on its influencing effect and functioning mechanism.The research results show that the fiscal decentralization significantly increases the imbalance risk of the pension fund,and the result is still established after the endogenous and robust treatment.And the effect of the fiscal decentralization is mainly realized through the two mechanisms of the collection efficiency and early retirement.In particular,the fiscal decentralization induces the local government to relax the payment supervision,which undermines the pension insurance income;it also causes the local government to loosen the examination on retirement applications,so that the phenomenon of employee early retirement is more common,which increases the demand for pension fund payment;the institutional environment has a threshold effect on the two paths of fiscal decentralization:when the fund is relatively abundant,the dependence on financial subsidies is low and the overall statutory premium rate is high,the mechanism of fiscal decentralization is more prominent.This paper proved the influence of the macro-economic system on the operation of the pension fund,and deepened the understanding of the relationship between the decentralized system and the social pension insurance system.It offered some insight into the ongoing reform on the system in China.

Key words：pension insurance;fund imbalances;fiscal decentralization;early retirement;collection efficiency