《保险研究》20210203-《非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析》（陆思婷、粟芳）

［摘   要］本文基于我国财险业2009~2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度。研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险。但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上的初始损失时,才会有保险机构陷入危机；当初始损失大于8500亿元时,才会有保险机构因传染风险而陷入危机。在承保风险的传染过程中,损失至少以数倍的速度下降；保险机构主要在承保风险和前两轮传染中损失较大,在后续传染轮次陷入危机的可能性极低。因此,防范巨灾风险、监管重点公司、探索巨灾转移机制并建立承保风险预警机制显得比较重要。

［关键词］财险业;承保风险;系统性风险;复杂网络模型

［基金项目］本文感谢上海哲学社科的支持(课题编号:2018BJB009)。

［作者简介］陆思婷,上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生；粟芳,上海财经大学金融学院教授。

The Complex Network Analysis of Insurance Systemic Risk Caused by Underwriting Risk of Nonlife Insurance

LU Si-ting，SU Fang

Abstract：Based on the real business data of China′s nonlife insurance industry from 2009 to 2018,an underwriting business network of nonlife insurance industry was constructed by using the complex network theory and model,the processes of contagion from underwriting risks to systematic risk were simulated,and the contagion track and contagion degree of underwriting risks on the systemic risks of the nonlife insurance industry were analyzed.The research results show that,the connection among the underwriting business network in China′s property insurance industry is getting closer and closer.As a result,the increase in the underwriting risk can give rise to the contagion risk,and may even trigger off the outbreak of the systematic risk.But at the present,the nonlife insurance in China as a whole is running stably.Certain insurance companies may fall into crisis only when there is a big initial loss of at least 160 billion RMB,and only when the initial loss is more than 850 billion RMB,would some insurance companies get into crisis because of the contagion risk.Losses fall several-fold during the contagion process of the underwriting risk.Insurance companies mainly suffer relatively large losses from the underwriting risk and the first two rounds of contagion,and the possibility of getting into crisis in the subsequent rounds of contagion is very low.Therefore,it is necessary to prevent catastrophe risk,supervise key entities,explore the catastrophe transfer mechanism and establish the underwriting risk early warning mechanism.

Key words：non-life insurance;underwriting risk;systematic risk;complex network model