《保险研究》20210305-《个人贷款保证保险定价研究》（安平、张琅、葛艳辉）

［摘   要］普惠金融近年来快速发展,保险业借助贷款保证保险这一工具,也发挥了积极的作用。个人贷款保证保险与普通的财产保险差异较大,传统的非寿险定价方法不再适用。如何建立一套有效可行的定价方法论,帮助银行在风险可控的前提下,将金融服务辐射到更广的人群,进一步提升普惠金融的供给,同时更精准地评估风险,向客户提供差异化的费率,体现保险费率厘定的“公平原则”,成为亟需解决的问题。本文的定价思路为从构成纯风险保费的两个关键要素分别着手,引入Cox模型对投保人各期出险率进行建模,推导计算各期理赔金额,最终预测获得每个投保人的保费定价结果。本文引入了信息丰富的央行征信数据和个人资产证明数据,通过特征衍生、处理和筛选等流程,构建定价模型的投保人风险要素。从模型的各项评估结果来看,本方法具有良好的预测能力和预测结果的稳定性,是可行且有效的。

［关键词］普惠金融；个人贷款保证保险定价；Cox模型；各期出险率；各期理赔金额

［作者简介］安平,博士,中国精算师,就职于中国人民财产保险股份有限公司产品精算部；张琅,北美精算师、中国精算师,中国人民财产保险股份有限公司总精算师、产品精算部总经理；葛艳辉,中国人民财产保险股份有限公司产品精算部团体业务精算二处处长。

A Research on the Pricing of Personal Loan Gurantee Insurance

AN Ping,ZHANG Lang,GE Yan-hui

Abstract：With the rapid development of Inclusive Finance in recent years,the insurance industry has played a positive role.There is a big difference between personal loan guarantee insurance and ordinary property insurance,as a result,the traditional non-life insurance pricing method is no longer applicable.It′s an urgent issue to establish an effective pricing methodology of personal loan guarantee insurance so that banks can offer financial services to a wider range of customers with risks properly controlled.Meanwhile the risks are to be evaluated more accurately so that the premium rate can be customized,demonstrating the fairness principle of insurance pricing.The pricing concept of this paper is to start from the two key elements of pure premiums,introducing the Cox model to model the risk incident rates,as well as deducing the claim amount of each period.Thus the pure premium of each policyholder can be obtained.Through the process of feature derivation,discretization as well as selection,this paper constructed the risk factors of the model based on personal credit information of the People′s Bank of China and personal asset certification data.The empirical study shows that this model has a good performance on prediction and stability,which indicates that the method is feasible and effective.

Key words：inclusive finance;personal loan guarantee insurance pricing;Cox model;risk incidence rate of different period;the claim amount of each period