《保险研究》20210302-《产品竞争压力与财务不稳定性——来自我国寿险公司的经验证据》（张诗豪、赵桂芹）

［摘   要］保险公司的财务稳定性受到投资者、监管者和保单持有人的密切关注。本文利用2010~2018年我国寿险公司的非平衡面板数据,以资产负债表为基础,首先从资产端和负债端两个方面构建寿险公司财务不稳定性的度量指标,然后检验该指标对寿险公司经营评价结果的预测能力,最后分析寿险公司产品竞争压力与财务不稳定性之间的关系。研究发现,该财务不稳定度指标对寿险公司的经营状况有较强的预测性；我国寿险公司面临的产品竞争压力与财务不稳定度呈现显著负相关关系,竞争压力越大,财务越不稳定,支持“竞争-脆弱”假说。此外,保费增长率、公司规模和投资表现都会对寿险公司的财务稳定性产生较为显著的影响。基于以上结论,本文建议监管机构基于资产负债表来关注寿险公司的财务稳定性,并充分考虑寿险公司竞争行为的影响。

［关键词］“竞争-脆弱”假说；经营评价；财务稳定性

［基金项目］本文得到国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于大数据的我国航运保险定价与风险管理研究(71973089)、上海市社科规划一般项目“保险行业声誉风险：形成机制、度量与监管”（2017BJB012）资助。

［作者简介］张诗豪,上海财经大学金融学院博士研究生,研究方向:保险公司经营管理；赵桂芹,上海财经大学金融学院副教授,研究方向:风险管理与保险。

Product Competition Pressure and Financial Instability—Evidences from Chinese Life Insurance Companies

ZHANG Shi-hao,ZHAO Gui-qin

Abstract：The insurers′ financial stability of is of great concern for investors,regulators and policyholders.Using the unbalanced panel data of Chinese life insurance companies from 2010 to 2018,we constructed a measurement index of the life insurer′s financial instability from the asset side and the liability side based on insurers′ balance sheets.Then we examined this index′s predictive ability on the operation evaluation results of life insurance companies.At last,we analyzed the relationship between the life insurer′s product competition pressure and financial instability.The results show that the financial instability index has a strong predictive effect on the operating conditions of life insurance companies;the product competition pressure faced by Chinese life insurance companies is significantly correlated with their financial instability:the higher the competition pressure,the lower the financial stability of life insurers,which is consistent with the "competition-fragility" hypothesis.In addition,premium growth,corporate size and investment performance have a significant impact on the financial stability of life insurance companies.The paper suggests that regulators pay attention to the financial stability of life insurance companies from the balance sheet perspective,and give full consideration to the impact of competitive behaviors of life insurers.

Key words："competition-fragility" hypothesis;operation evaluation;financial stability