《保险研究》20210407-《阶段性降低养老保险缴费率增加了企业投资吗？——来自A股上市公司的证据》（任超然）

［摘   要］降低企业养老保险缴费率是我国当前供给侧结构性改革的重要内容之一。2016年我国推出了“阶段性降低养老保险缴费率”的相关政策,本文以A股上市公司2013~2018年的数据为依据,通过双重差分模型探究该政策的实施对企业投资所产生的影响。研究发现,总体来看“阶段性降低养老保险缴费率”政策对企业的新增投资存在显著的正向影响,可以使上市公司的新增投资增加1.6%～3.1%。进一步的研究发现阶段性降费的政策效果呈现出企业异质性和地区异质性:由于中小型企业对该政策以及现金流的变化更为敏感,阶段性降费政策实施后中小型上市公司的新增投资显著增加；在资本密集度中低组别的企业,阶段性降费的政策效果更为显著；相比于东部地区企业,阶段性降费政策对中西部地区企业的影响程度更大；阶段性降费政策显著提高了非国有企业的投资,而对于国有企业的影响并不显著。上述研究结论有助于理解养老保险缴费率降低对于企业行为的影响,丰富企业投资相关的研究,并在一定程度上对当前的减税降费政策改革提供实证参考。

［关键词］ 社会保险；阶段性降费；缴费负担；企业投资

［基金项目］ 本文是国家社科基金青年项目“基本养老保险全国统筹的财政保障机制及其实现路径研究(19CGL044)”、上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题“合理降低社会保险缴费率:实现路径与政策效应”(2016EGL009)、教育部人文社会科学基金青年课题“我国机关事业单位养老保险改革的实证研究”(16YJC840017)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］任超然,华东理工大学社会与公共管理学院讲师,研究方向:社会保险与公共财政。

Does Phased Reduction of Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Increase Enterprise Investment?—Evidences from A-share Listed Companies

REN Chao-ran

Abstract：Reducing enterprises′ contribution rate to social pension insurance is one of the important contents of China's current supply side structural reform.In 2016,China launched the relevant policy of "phased reduction of social pension insurance contribution rate".Based on this policy information and the data of A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2018,this paper explored the impact of the policy on enterprise investment through the difference-in-difference model.The results show that,generally speaking,the "phased reduction of contribution rate" policy has a significantly positive impact on the new investment of enterprises with their new investment increased by 1.6% to 3.1%.Further research shows that this policy effect has enterprise heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity.Since small and medium-sized enterprises are more sensitive to the changes of policy and cash flow,the new investment of small and medium-sized listed companies increases significantly after the implementation of the policy.In the medium-and-low capital intensity enterprises,the policy effect is more significant.Compared with enterprises in the eastern region,the policy has a greater impact on enterprises in the central and western regions.The policy significantly increases the investments of non-state-owned enterprises,but has limited impact on state-owned enterprises.The above conclusions help to understand the impact of the reduction of social pension insurance contribution rate on corporate behaviors,enrich the research on enterprise investments,and provide empirical reference for the current tax cuts and fee reductions policy reform to a certain extent.

Key words：social insurance;phased fee reduction;contribution burden;enterprise investment