《保险研究》20210607-《认知能力对新农保参保决策的影响——基于CFPS数据的研究》（张跃华、李彤）

［摘   要］随着中国人口老龄化逐步深化以及农村家庭结构的变化,农村居民在社会化养老中的理性决策能力更加突出,而认知能力在其中发挥着重要作用。本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2012年数据,在充分控制其他影响因素的条件下,分析认知能力对新农保参保决策的影响。研究结果表明,认知能力对农村居民的新型农村养老保险参与率,以及参与程度(缴费金额)的影响并不是线性关系,而是呈现“倒U型”关系,并且在青年群体中表现得更为明显。机制分析表明,认知能力对参保的边际效应会受到家庭风险态度的影响,由于认知能力将同时影响个人的收入和参保意愿,低认知能力群体的老年人更易遭遇贫困风险,因此应成为社会养老保险项目的重点关注对象。

［关键词］新型农村养老保险；保险需求；认知能力；老龄化；倒U型

［基金项目］本研究受到教育部人文社科规划项目(20YJA790093),国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA117),以及中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金、浙江大学文科教师教学科研发展专项项目资助。

［作者简介］张跃华,浙江大学民生保障与公共治理研究中心、公共管理学院教授；李彤,浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生。

The Impact of Cognitive Ability on Participation in the New Rural Pension Program—An Empirical Study Based on China Family Panel Studies

ZHANG Yue-hua,LI Tong

Abstract：With the deepening of population aging and the change of rural family structure in China,the rational decision-making ability of rural residents is becoming more and more important,in which the cognitive ability plays an important role.Based on the data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2012,this study analyzed the influence of cognitive abilities on farmers′ participation in the New Rural Pension Program (NRPP) under the condition of fully controlling other influencing factors.The results show that the relationship of cognitive ability and the participation rate and participation level ( sum of contribution) in NRPP is not linear.There is an inverse U-shaped curve between cognitive abilities and participation of NRPP,particularly for youth.In addition,the marginal effect of cognitive ability on participation is also influenced by household risk attitudes.Cognitive ability affect both income and willingness to participate in insurance,so elderly people with low cognitive ability are more likely to face the risk of poverty,and they should be a priority target for social insurance programs.

Key words：New Rural Pension Program;pension insurance;insurance demand;cognitive abilities