《保险研究》20210603-《中国五大城市群保险业发展的空间差异及分布动态研究》（郑理、徐雷、钟坚）

［摘   要］本文选取2000～2018年中国五大城市群作为研究对象,运用地理信息系统、Dagum基尼系数、Markov链等分析方法,揭示五大城市群保险业发展水平的动态演变趋势,同时对保险业发展水平的空间敛散性和影响因素进行识别。研究表明,在全国保险业发展水平持续上升的同时,五大城市群的保险深度和保险密度表现出“板块化”的空间集聚特征。从Dagum基尼系数来看,保险业发展的空间非均衡在城市群间、城市群内呈下降趋势,但城市群间的差异是造成总体差异的主要来源。从Markov链来看,五大城市群保险业发展水平的等级状态之间能够保持较高水平的流动性,保险密度的流动性多表现为向上等级的转移,保险深度实现跨越式发展的概率也较大。考虑空间效应后,城市群保险业发展存在显著的绝对β空间收敛、条件β空间收敛以及俱乐部收敛特征,并且影响各个城市群保险业发展的因素不尽相同。因此,主张在明晰城市群保险业发展具有地域分异特征的前提下,应充分重视空间动态关联,提出缩小保险业发展差距、助推城市群协调发展的对策建议。

［关键词］五大城市群；保险深度；保险密度；时空分异；俱乐部收敛

［基金项目］教育部人文社科基金项目(17YJC790178)；国家社科基金项目(18BKS059)；湖南省社科基金项目(16YBQ040)；湖南省自科基金项目(2018JJ3258)；湖南省社科评审委项目(XSP18YBZ122)。

［作者简介］郑理,深圳大学经济学院博士研究生,研究方向:经济地理与产业经济学；徐雷,南京大学经济学院(博士后)助理研究员,研究方向:保险精算与数理经济学；钟坚,深圳大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,研究方向:城市经济学。

A Research on the Spatial Differences and Distributional Dynamic of Insurance Development of Five Main Megalopolises in China

ZHENG Li,XU Lei,ZHONG Jian

Abstract：Five main megalopolises in China from 2000 to 2018 were selected as the research objects,and GIS,Dagum,Markov chain were used to systematically reveal the evolutionary trends of the insurance industry development in the five main megalopolises.And an econometric model incorporating spatial factors was constructed to identify the spatial convergence and influencing factors of the development level of the insurance industry.The study shows that,while the overall development level of the national insurance industry continues to rise,the insurance penetration and density of the five main megalopolises show a "segmented" clustering feature.From the Dagum,the spatial non-equilibrium of insurance industry development is decreasing among and within megalopolises,and the inter-cluster gap is the main source of the overall difference.From the Markov chain,the mobility between the level states of insurance industry development in the five main megalopolises can maintain a high level,and the mobility is mostly shown as a transfer to the upper level of insurance density,while the probability of achieving leapfrog development in insurance penetration is greater.After considering the spatial effects,there are significant absolute β convergence,conditional β convergence and club convergence characteristics in the development of insurance industry,and the factors affecting the development of insurance industry are not the same.Therefore,it is advocated that,on the premise of clarifying that the insurance industry development in China′s five main megalopolises has geographically heterogeneous characteristics,the spatial dynamic correlation should be given due attention,and countermeasure suggestions to narrow the gap in insurance industry development and promote the coordinated development of urban clusters are put forward.

Key words：five main megalopolises;insurance penetration;insurance density;spatial differences;club convergence