《保险研究》20210705-《完全成本保险对农业经济以及社会福利的影响分析》（江生忠、李立达）

［摘   要］本文建立了一个含有风险冲击和保险保障的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨了农业保险对于农业经济波动的影响效应。进一步地,比较了完全成本保险相较于传统产量保险对风险冲击的平抑效果,并基于DSEG的分析框架,测算了两种产品带来的社会福利的变化。结果发现:农业保险可以有效地平抑风险冲击带来的经济波动,相比传统产量保险完全成本保险的平抑效果更好。此外,以不含有保险保障的基准模型为参照,引入完全成本保险要比传统产量保险所带来的社会福利的变化更大,社会效应更高。基于结论，本文提出三点建议:扩大农业保险的应用场景、扩大完全成本保险的试点范围、提高政府对于农业保险的补贴力度。

［关键词］风险冲击；完全成本保险；经济波动；社会福利

［作者简介］江生忠,南开大学金融学院教授、博士生导师；李立达,南开大学金融学院博士研究生。

The Analysis of the Influence of Total Cost Insurance on Agricultural Economy and Social Welfare

JIANG Sheng-zhong,LI Li-da

Abstract：In this paper,a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with risk impact and insurance guarantee was established to explore the effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural economic fluctuation.From the perspective of insurance products,this paper compared and analyzed the effect of TPI (Traditional Production Insurance) and TCI (Total Cost Insurance) on risk shock.Based on the DSEG analysis framework,the compensation change method was introduced to measure the changes of social welfare brought by the two products.The results show that agricultural insurance can effectively suppress the economic fluctuations caused by risk shocks,and the effect of TCI is better.In addition,taking the benchmark model without insurance guarantee as a reference,the change of social welfare brought by the introduction of TCI is greater than that of TPI under the same conditions,and its social effect is higher.Based on this and the new trend of agricultural insurance in China,this paper put forward three suggestions to speed up the high-quality development of agricultural insurance:expanding the application scenarios of agricultural insurance,expanding the pilot scope of TCI,and increasing the government subsidies.

Key words：risk shock;Total Cost Insurance;economic fluctuation;social welfare