《保险研究》20210805-《金融周期视角下的保险资管行业转型与发展》（朱晓明、徐钢、马勇）

［摘   要］金融周期正对中国宏观调控和金融监管政策框架产生深刻影响。在此背景下,保险资管行业将受何种影响及如何应对是个重要问题。本文测算了中国的金融周期,分析其特征并进行了国际比较。随后从影子银行信贷脉冲视角分析金融周期的经济效应和制度效应,构建静态局部均衡模型研究金融周期对保险资管行业的影响和传导链条，并进行了实证检验,从资产端、资金来源和行业格局角度进行机制分析。研究发现,中国金融周期与欧美错位,正处在下行周期；金融周期是驱动经济和金融市场波动背后的一个中长期影响因子,金融周期作用于宏观经济,进而影响利率和信用利差,最后影响保险资管机构的资产配置行为；金融周期还作用于宏观调控和金融监管框架,最终也影响到保险资管行业的竞争格局。最后,本文对保险资管行业转型与发展提出了建议。

［关键词］ 金融周期；保险资管；影子银行信贷脉冲；静态局部均衡模型

［作者简介］朱晓明,清华大学五道口金融学院博士研究生,太平资产管理有限公司高级研究员；徐钢,高级经济师,太平资产管理有限公司党委委员、副总经理；马勇,太平资产管理有限公司高级经济师。

The Transformation and Development of Insurance Asset Management Industry from the Perspective of Financial Cycle

ZHU Xiao-Ming,XU Gang,MA Yong

Abstract：The financial cycle is having a profound impact on China′s macro-economic control and financial regulatory framework.Therefore,it is an important issue to analyze its impacts on the insurance asset management industry and corresponding countermeasures.This paper measured China′s financial cycles,analyzed their characteristics and made international comparisons.Then,it explored on the economic and institutional effects of the financial cycle from the perspective of credit impulse of shadow banking.It also established a static local equilibrium model to study the impact of the financial cycle on the insurance asset management industry and its transmission chain.It adopted the SVAR model to conduct an empirical testing,then explored the mechanism from the perspective of assets,sources of funds and industry structure.This paper finds that,contrary to the US and Eurozone,China is undergoing a downward stage of financial cycle;The financial cycle is a medium and long-term factor behind the fluctuation of economy and financial market;The financial cycle acts on the economic cycle,then affects the interest rate and credit spread,and finally affects the asset allocation behaviors of insurance asset management institutions;The financial cycle also acts on the macro-economic control and financial regulatory framework,and ultimately affects the competition pattern of the insurance asset management industry.Finally,this paper put forward corresponding suggestions on the transformation and development of the insurance asset management industry.

Key words：financial cycle;insurance asset management;credit impulse of shadow banking;static local equilibrium model