《保险研究》20210908-《我国社会保险缴费基数研究——基于全口径城镇单位就业人员平均工资视角》（李红艳、朱敏）

［摘   要］科学、合理、全面地测算全口径城镇单位就业人员平均工资,是确定社会保险缴费基数及其有效实施并促进社会保险制度可持续发展的关键。本研究以我国内地31个省(直辖市、自治区)相关统计数据作为样本,分别构建客观赋权法、权重调整法、熵权法组合测算模型3种方法,测算得到31个省(直辖市、自治区)2019年和2020年基于全口径城镇单位就业人员平均工资的社会保险缴费基数。对不同模型所得结果与各省(直辖市、自治区)公布的实际社会保险缴费基数进行偏离度分析,发现权重调整法整体偏离度相对较高,熵权法组合测算模型偏离度居中,客观赋权法偏离度最小；进一步分析客观赋权法测算结果与经济发展水平以及国民经济生活水平的协调性,发现客观赋权法测算结果可协调经济发展与国民基本经济生活水平的发展,但是仍有上升空间；最后构建客观赋权法+因子调整模型,发现客观赋权法测算结果具有稳定性和合理性,受因子调整的影响较小。建议在社会保险缴费基数核算方法上,可以使用一致的全口径城镇单位就业人员平均工资的计算方法,实现省级层面关于社会保险缴费基数核算方法的统一；扩大统计口径,反映更加全面的就业人员平均工资水平。

［关键词］社会保险缴费基数；客观赋权法；全口径城镇单位就业人员平均工资

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金项目(16BJY001)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(16YJCZH043)；国家民委民族研究项目(2021-GMD-064)；上海市教育系统工会理论研究委托研究课题(2021GHL06)。

［作者简介］李红艳,上海工程技术大学管理学院教授,理学博士,研究方向:社会保障；朱  敏,上海工程技术大学硕士研究生,研究方向:社会保障定量分析。

A Research on the Contribution Base of Social Insurance in China—Based on the perspective of the full-caliber average wage of employees in urban units

LI Hong-yan,ZHU Min

Abstract：Scientific,reasonable and comprehensive calculation of the full-caliber average wage of employees in urban units is the key to determining the social insurance contribution base and its effective implementation,and promoting the sustainable development of the social insurance system.In this study,the relevant statistical data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in mainland China were taken as samples,and three combined calculation models of objective weighting method,weight adjustment method and entropy weight method were constructed respectively to estimate the social insurance contribution base of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in 2019 and 2020 based on the full-caliber average wage of the employees in urban units.Firstly,the deviation degree between the results of different models and the actual social insurance contribution base published by all provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) was analyzed,and found that the overall deviation degree of the weight adjustment method was relatively high,the combined entropy weight method was in the middle,and the objective weighting method was the least.By further analyzing the coordination between the measurement results of objective weighting method and the level of economic development and the national economic and living standards,it was found that the results of the objective weighting method could coordinate with the level of economic development and the basic national economic and living standards,but there was still room for improvement.Finally,the objective weighting method + factor adjustment model was constructed.It was found that the calculation results of this method were stable and reasonable,and were less affected by factor adjustment.It is suggested that in the accounting method of social insurance contribution base,a consistent calculation method of the full-caliber average wage of employees in urban units can be used to realize the unification of the accounting method of social insurance contribution base at the provincial level.The statistical caliber can be expanded to reflect a more comprehensive average wage level of employed persons.

Key words：social insurance contribution base;objective weighting method;full-caliber average salary of employees in urban units