《保险研究》20211002-《企业保险投入、政府补贴与进出口月度波动》（逯建、牟丹、李长青、李谭）

［摘   要］本文利用“中国工业企业数据库”,对每个企业的保险投入和获得的补贴的数据进行了描述统计,并将其与根据“中国海关数据库”算得的企业进出口月度波动数值进行实证分析。研究发现,企业保险投入的金额增加会增大企业进口和出口的月度波动,政府补贴的金额增加也会增大企业出口的月度波动；补贴的金额增加能增大保险对企业外贸波动的正向影响。但新投入保险的企业要比没有保险投入的企业有更小的贸易波动。这些结论在保险投入进入退出的不同持续时间、不同年份以及考虑企业前三期保险补贴平均水平的分析中保持稳健。实证结果表明,保险、补贴对企业进出口的波动具有明显的“道德风险”效应,企业的保险投入和补贴收入有助于企业承担更多的外贸风险,但过高的贸易波动幅度对经济平稳运行会产生负面影响。因此,应合理控制企业保险投入和补贴收入规模,确保我国对外贸易又快又稳的发展。

［关键词］保险；补贴；对外贸易；月度；波动

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目(71873106)。

［作者简介］逯建,西南财经大学国际商学院教授；牟丹,西南财经大学财政税务学院经济学博士研究生；李长青,西南财经大学国际商学院副教授；李谭,西南财经大学国际商学院副教授。

Insurances Input,Government Subsidies and Monthly Volatility of International Trade

LU Jian,MOU Dan,LI Chang-qing,LI Tan

Abstract：This paper used the insurance and subsidy data of enterprises in the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Data and made an empirical analysis by using the Chinese Custom Data to calculate the monthly fluctuation of exports and imports of each enterprise.It is found that the increase of enterprise insurance increases the monthly fluctuation of corporate exports and imports,and the increase of government subsidy has the same impacts.The increase of subsidy can enhance the positive impact of insurance input on enterprises′ international trade fluctuations.However,enterprises with new insurance input have smaller trade fluctuations than those without insurance input.These conclusions are robust in the analysis of the duration of different entry and exit of insurance,different years and considering the average level of insurance subsidies in the first three periods.The empirical results show that insurance input and subsidies have an obvious “moral risk” effect on the fluctuation of enterprises′ exports and imports.Enterprises′ insurance input and subsidy income can help enterprises bear more international trade risks,but high trade fluctuation has a negative impact on the smooth economic operation.Therefore,we should carefully control the scale of enterprise insurance input and subsidy income to ensure the rapid and stable development of Chinese international trade.

Key words：insurance;subsidies; international trade; monthly;volatility