《保险研究》20211103-《政策性农业保险的精准扶贫效果评估——来自中国准自然实验的证据》（段白鸽、何敏华）

［摘   要］精准脱贫是关乎中国经济高质量发展的三大攻坚战之一,科学评估扶贫政策工具的实践效果具有重要的学术和现实意义。农业保险作为中国政府大力推行的政策性金融工具之一,其扶贫的政策效果亟待实证检验。本文利用中国在不同地区陆续推行的政策性农业保险保费补贴这一准自然实验,采用双重差分方法识别出农业保险缓解贫困程度的政策效果和影响机制。研究发现,推行政策性农业保险显著降低了贫困人口数量,缩小了贫困缺口和贫困农户内部的收入差距,贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度分别下降0.016、0.008和0.005。在机制方面,农业保险通过提高农户的家庭经营性收入发挥了扶贫减贫效应,试点后农户的人均家庭经营性收入至少平均提高了4.5%。这意味着应持续推进农业保险扩面、增品和提标,加大保费补贴力度、优化补贴结构,充分挖掘专业技术和监督优势降低农户的逆向选择和道德风险,健全和完善扶贫减贫长效机制,巩固和拓展脱贫攻坚成果。

［关键词］政策性农业保险；贫困发生率；贫困深度；贫困强度

［基金项目］本文获得教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(21YJA790014)、上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2019BJB008)和青年课题(2017EJL004)的资助。

［作者简介］段白鸽(通讯作者),复旦大学经济学院副教授、风险管理与保险学系副系主任,中国准精算师,研究方向:保险经济学、精算与风险管理；何敏华,复旦大学经济学院与伦敦政治经济学院联合培养硕士研究生,研究方向:保险经济学。

Anti-poverty Effect of Policy-oriented Agriculture Insurance:Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in China

DUAN Bai-ge,He Min-hua

Abstract：Precise poverty alleviation is one of the three key battles related to the high-quality development of China′s economy.It is of great academic and practical significance to scientifically evaluate the practical effects of various anti-poverty policy tools.As a policy financial tool vigorously promoted by the Chinese government,smoking gun evidence for the anti-poverty effect of agricultural insurance has been yet to come.Interestingly,the policy-oriented agriculture insurance premium subsidy phased-in in China constitutes a quasi-natural experiment to test this effect.The paper exploited the quasi-natural experiment to identify the casual effects and transmission mechanism of the policy on poverty levels by using the difference-in-differences methodology.The results show that the implementation of policy-oriented agricultural insurance plays a significant role in reducing the number of poor people,and narrowing the poverty gap and income gap among poor farmers.After the implementation,the incidence,depth and intensity of poverty are reduced by 0.016,0.008 and 0.005 respectively.In terms of mechanism,agricultural insurance has played an important role in poverty alleviation by increasing operating income of rural households.After the pilot,per capita family operating income of rural households has increased by an average of at least 4.5%.This means that the governments and insurance companies should continue to promote the expansion of agricultural insurance coverage,products and standards,and constantly increase and optimize the strength and structure of premium subsidies,fully tap the advantages of professional technology and supervision to reduce adverse selection and moral hazard of rural households,improve the long-term mechanism for poverty alleviation,consolidate and expand the key achievements of poverty alleviation.

Key words：policy-oriented agriculture insurance;poverty incidence;poverty depth;poverty intensity