《保险研究》20220106-《中国死亡率改善率预测及实践研究》（何剑钢、郑宇西）

［摘   要］本文采用1997~2019年人口死亡率数据，参考英国精算师协会、美国北美精算师协会、加拿大精算师协会三家机构搭建的死亡率改善率预测模型框架，建立适用于中国实情的死亡率改善率预测模型。研究结果表明:死亡率改善率显著，对人口平均余命和年金现值系数均有一定程度的正向影响。在平均余命方面，低年龄段的提高程度较为显著，0~10岁的男性平均改善为7.07岁，女性为6.32岁；年龄越高平均余命的提高程度越小；考虑死亡率改善率后，男性平均寿命从76.42岁(基于中国人身保险业经验生命表(2010~2013))升高为83.45岁，增长9.2%；女性平均寿命从81.71岁升高为87.3岁，增长6.84%。在年金现值系数方面，考虑死亡率改善率后，我国的平均年金现值系数从22.31变为23.53，增长5.47%；中高年龄段的影响程度较大，考虑死亡率改善率后60岁及以上人口的平均年金现值系数从11.66变为12.6，增长8.1%；死亡率改善率对男性年金现值系数的提高程度略大于女性。

［关键词］死亡率改善率；Lee-Carter模型；CMI(The Continuous Mortality Investigation)；APCI(Age-Period-Cohort Improvement)；RPEC(The Retirement Plans Experience Committee)

［作者简介］何剑钢，北京爱选信息科技有限公司联合创始人、北美精算师；郑宇西，就职北京爱选信息科技有限公司保险研究部。

The Projection and Analysis on Mortality Rate Improvement in China

HE Jian-gang,ZHENG Yu-xi

Abstract：This paper provided a practical mortality improvement model for China based on the mortality census data from 1997 to 2019,and with reference to the Continuous Mortality Investigation by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA),the Society of Actuaries (SOA),and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA).The results show that the mortality improvement is quite significant,and has positive impacts on the life expectancy and PVIFA (Present Value Interest Factor of Annuity).In terms of life expectancy,the improvement is larger for the younger groups.For the 0-10 aged group,the average improvement is 7.07 years for males,and 6.32 years for females.The higher the age,the smaller the improvement in life expectancy is.In addition,the results show that the average life expectancy for males increases from 76.42 years (based on CL10-13) to 83.45 years with the consideration of mortality improvement,an increase of 9.2%,while the average life expectancy for females increases from 81.71 years to 87.3 years,an increases 6.84%.In terms of PVIFA,with the consideration of mortality improvement,the average PVIFA increases from 22.31 to 23.53,rising by 5.47%,and the average PVIFA of age 60 and above group increases from11.66 to 12.6,rising by 8.1%.The mortality improvement′s impacts on PVIFA of males are slightly greater than females.

Key words：rate of mortality improvement;Lee-Carter Model;CMI (The Continuous Mortality Investigation);APCI (Age-Period-Cohort Improvement);RPEC (The Retirement Plans Experience Committee)