《保险研究》20220105-《基于需求角度的个人养老金潜在规模测算》（刘方涛、郭小楠、张蕊、邱明月）

［摘   要］长寿时代来临，七普数据显示我国60岁以上老龄人口占比已经达到18.7%。我国现有养老保障体系承压明显，养老第三支柱建设迫在眉睫。本文以居民退休后实际的收入和支出为视角，测算2025、2030、2035三个时间点的养老资金缺口，为第三支柱个人养老金制度建设提供理论支撑。首先预测2025、2030、2035年分性别分年龄的退休人口数，再基于2013~2018年CHARLS统计调查，预测未来居民退休后面临医疗、长期护理和基本生活所需资金规模，计算在当前养老金给付政策下预期可获得的基本养老保险、职业年金和企业年金收入，通过收支缺口推算出2025、2030、2035年我国养老第三支柱的潜在规模。研究得出以下结论，2025年我国第三支柱的潜在规模为6.9万亿，2030年为9.9万亿，2035年为13.6万亿。从支出结构来看，基本生活支出为居民退休后的主要资金去向。基本生活支出较医疗和长护支出具有更大的价格弹性，因而第三支柱成为保障居民退休后生活质量的重要支撑。发展第三支柱需要明确第三支柱职能定位，帮助居民清晰认识退休后面临的资金情况，助力居民做好个人养老规划。

［关键词］老龄人口规模和年龄结构预测；退休后收入预测；退休后支出预测；养老金缺口

［基金项目］中国保险学会基金项目“第三支柱养老保险政策及产品创新趋势研究”(项目编号ISCKT2021-N-1-14)。本文使用的数据来自于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)，特此感谢。

［作者简介］刘方涛(通讯作者)，香港城市大学统计学博士，主要研究方向:医疗养老政策、指数建模；郭小楠，CFA，英国帝国理工大学硕士；张蕊，中国对外经济贸易大学硕士；邱明月，中国科学院大学硕士。本文作者均供职于泰康养老保险股份有公司战略企划部。

The Potential Market Size of the Third Pillar of the Social Pension System from the Perspective of Demands

LIU Fang-tao,GUO Xiao-nan,ZHANG Rui,QIU Ming-yue

Abstract：With the arrival of the longevity era,the sustainability of China′s pensions system is under great pressure.Data from the 7th population census has shown that people aged 60+has taken up 18.7% of the total population,calling for a strong urgency to build up the third pillar of the social pension system.This study aimed to study the pension fund gap in 2025,2030 and 2035 from the perspective of the actual income and expenditure of retirees under the current policies,providing theoretical support for the construction of the third pillar of the social pension system.Based on 2013-2018 CHARLSdata,the study first projected the total retiree population by age and genderin 2025,2030 and 2035,then further predicted total funds needed for medical,long-term care and basic living expense of retirees,and their total income from the first and second pillar,and finally reached the potential market size of the third pillar in2025,2030 and 2035.Theresearch concluded that the potential market size of the third pillar was 6.9 trillion in 2025,9.9 trillion in 2030,and 13.6 trillion in 2035.From the structure of expenditure,basic living expenses,with greater price elasticity compared to medical and long-term care spending,take up the largest share of total expenditure,therefore,the living quality after retirement relies heavily on the third pillar.To build a healthy and thriving third pillar of pension system,it is necessary to clarify the importance of the third pillar,and help residents to realize capital needs after retirement and to prepare in advance.

Key words：the projection of the size and age of aging population;forecast of retirement income;forecast of retirement expenditure;pension gap