《保险研究》20220309-《城镇职工养老保险费率下调能创造财政效益吗？——基于就业激励与资本深化的双中介效应分析》（胡娟、艾华）

［摘   要］将养老保险改革与税收纳入统一研究框架来评估改革的财政效益，是制定与财政可持续发展战略相适应的养老保险制度的必要前提。本文采用代际交叠模型(OLG)的理论分析框架，演绎养老保险费率与税收之间的联动关系。而后，以下调城镇职工基本养老保险单位费率政策作为一项准自然实验，运用中国2010~2019年城市面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现:养老保险降费政策可以创造一定的财政效益；与未实施政策的城市相比，降费政策显著提升地方政府税收收入水平。机制分析表明，降费政策可以通过就业激励与资本深化的作用渠道发挥财政效益。进一步分析发现，东部、经济较发达、政府对经济干预程度较低的地区享受了较多的降费红利。基于以上结论，养老保险政策规划应因地制宜，注重提高制度的公平、效率与均衡发展，并进一步降低费率来延续改革成果。

［关键词］ 降费；财政效益；就业激励；资本深化

［作者简介］胡娟，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院博士研究生，研究方向:财税理论与财政政策；艾华，中南财经政法大学财政税务学院教授，研究方向:财税理论与财政政策。

Can The Reduction of Urban Employees′ Pension Contribution Rate Create Fiscal Benefits?—An Analysis of The Double Mediating Effects Based on Employment Incentives and Capital Deepening

HU Juan,AI Hua

Abstract：Incorporating pension reform and taxation into a unified research framework to evaluate the fiscal benefits of the reform is a necessary prerequisite for the pension insurance system strategy.We used the theoretical analysis framework of the intergenerational overlapping model (OLG) to deduce the interaction between the pension premium rate and tax.Then,taking the policy of reducing the premium rate of urban employees′ pension plan as a quasi-natural experiment,and combining the panel data of Chinese cities form 2010 to 2019,the paper conducted an empirical analysis.The results show that:the policy of reducing pension premium rate generates fiscal benefits.This policy can significantly increase local government tax revenues compared with cities without such policy.The mechanism analysis shows that the premium reduction policy can exert fiscal benefits through the channels of employment incentives and capital deepening.The effect is more significant in eastern and developed areas and districts with less government intervention.Therefore,the social pension policy should consider local conditions,focus on improving the fairness,efficiency and balanced development of the system,and sustain the reform results through further premium rate reduction.

Key words：reducing pension premium rate;fiscal benefits;employment incentive;capital deepening