《保险研究》20220307-《养老保险全国统筹：经办服务“垂直管理”抑或“属地管理”？——基于基金可持续视角》（曾益、杨悦、姚金）

［摘   要］《十四五规划纲要》指出“实现养老保险全国统筹”。在养老保险经办服务体系设置中，有两个可供选择的模式，即经办服务体系“垂直管理”或“属地管理”。本文基于基金可持续的视角，运用计量模型和精算模型研究哪类模式有助于实现养老保险全国统筹的目标，增强养老保险基金应对老龄化能力。研究发现：如果实施“属地管理”模式，征缴率不发生变化，2024年养老保险基金出现首次当期赤字，2050年累计赤字规模达到107.04万亿元；如果实施“垂直管理”模式，征缴率上升8.26个百分点，养老保险基金当期赤字时点推后至2031年，2050年仍有累计结余1.27万亿元；进一步引入延迟退休年龄政策后，“属地管理”模式下，2050年累计结余规模达79.32万亿元，“垂直管理”模式下，累计结余规模则达201.72万亿元。上述结论均通过敏感性测试。因此，实施渐进式延迟退休年龄政策与“垂直管理”模式能够有效提高养老保险基金可持续性，建议在推进养老保险全国统筹的进程中，选择“垂直管理”模式。

［关键词］养老保险；全国统筹；垂直管理；属地管理

［基金项目］国家社科基金重点项目“发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系研究”(编号:21AZD070)。

［作者简介］曾益，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院副教授，研究方向:养老保险；杨悦，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向:养老保险；姚金，中南财经政法大学公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向:养老保险。

National Pooling of Social Pension Insurance: Agency Service System “Vertically Managed” or “Territorially Managed”? Based on the Perspective of Fund Sustainability

ZENG Yi,YANG Yue,YAO Jin

Abstract：The "Outline of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" points out that “the national pooling of the social pension insurance should be realized. There are “vertical management” and “territorial management” for social pension insurance agency service system to choose. Based on the perspective of fund sustainability, this paper used provincial panel data and actuarial models to quantitatively evaluate which model of these two helped to achieve the goal of national pooling of the social pension insurance, and enhance the ability of the pension fund to deal with population aging. The result shows that: if the “territorial management” mode is implemented and the collection rate remains unchanged, the current deficit will first occur in 2024 and the cumulative deficit will reach 107.04 trillion yuan in 2050; if the “vertical management” mode is implemented, and the collection rate rise by 8.26%, the current deficit will occur in 2031 and there will be a cumulative balance of 1.27 trillion yuan in 2050;  if the policy of postponing retirement is introduced, the cumulative balances of the “territorial management” model and the “vertical management” model will be 79.32 trillion yuan and 201.72 trillion yuan in 2050, respectively. The above conclusions all passed the sensitivity test. It can be seen the implementation of postponing retirement and “vertical management” can improve the sustainability of pension fund effectively. Therefore, in the process of promoting the national pooling of social pension insurance, the "vertical management" model should be selected.

Key words：social pension insurance; national pooling; vertical management; territorial management