《保险研究》20220305-《农民合作社风险管理工具绩效评估研究》（张梅、杨丽丽）

［摘   要］本文采用单案例分析方法，选取农业保险、多样化经营、协议订单及其组合策略等风险管理工具，以RF合作社为例，利用蒙特卡洛仿真模型对其风险管理工具的绩效进行评估。以夏普比率、风险值和一阶随机占优三类评价指标结果为评估标准，对合作社不同风险管理工具及其组合策略的绩效进行排序，从而得出合作社最优风险管理策略。研究表明:合作社风险管理组合策略绩效水平要高于单一的风险管理策略；“多元化种植+完全成本保险+协议订单”组合策略是合作社最优的风险管理工具，其次是“多元化种植+物化成本保险+协议订单”组合策略和“多元化种植+协议订单”组合策略，组合策略中多元化种植策略在一定程度可以起到分散生产经营风险的目的，但其风险管理成本较高。基于结论提出增加政策性农业保险覆盖范围、扩大完全成本保险试点范围、完善价格风险管理机制和提高合作社多元化种植策略的战略抉择等建议。

［关键词］政策性农业保险；夏普比率；蒙特卡洛模拟；风险值；风险管理

［基金项目］黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“基于多元共治的黑龙江省土地托管风险管理研究”(21JYB150)。

［作者简介］张梅，东北农业大学经济管理学院教授；杨丽丽，东北农业大学经济管理学院研究生。

Performance Evaluation of Risk Management Tools for Cooperatives

ZHANG Mei,YANG Li-Li

Abstract：This paper adopted a single case analysis method,selected risk management tools such as agricultural insurance,diversified operations,contractual orders and their combination strategies,and used Monte Carlo simulation model to evaluate the performance of RF cooperative risk management tools.Taking the Sharpe ratio,risk value and first-order random dominance as the evaluation criteria,the performance of different risk management tools and their combination strategies of the cooperative was ranked,and the optimal risk management strategy of the cooperative was obtained.Studies have shown that the performance of the cooperative′s risk management combination strategy is higher than that of a single risk management strategy;the "diversified planting+full cost insurance+contractual order" combination strategy is the optimal risk management tool for cooperatives,followed by "diversified planting+materialized cost insurance+contractual order" combination strategy and "diversified planting+contracted order" combination strategy.In the combination strategies,the diversified planting strategy can achieve the purpose of diversifying production and operation risks to a certain extent,but its risk management cost is relatively high.Based on the conclusions,suggestions were made to increase the coverage of policy-based agricultural insurance,expand the scope of pilot full-cost insurance,improve the price risk management mechanism,and improve the strategic choices of cooperatives for diversified planting strategies.

Key words：policy agricultural insurance;Sharpe ratio;Monte Carlo simulation;risk value;risk management