《保险研究》20220304-《我国农业保险和再保险应对大灾风险能力的模拟研究》（吕晓英、庹国柱、蒲应燕）

［摘   要］中国农再定位于财政支持的农业大灾风险分散机制的基础和核心。农业保险直保公司和中国农再双方的经营风险有多大，以及是否还要另外建立国家农业保险大灾风险基金等问题，成为当前亟待研究和回答的重要问题。为此，本文以我国种植业、养殖业赔付率最高的13个省（自治区、直辖市）农业保险的业务为代表，建立省级农业保险直保业务和中国农再相互耦合的大型系统动力学数组模型，在未来多种大灾风险情景假设下，通过对中国农再现行再保险模式、增加保费收入等十三种方案的模拟，展示了2022年到2035年13个省（自治区、直辖市）农业保险直保经营和中国农再的盈亏状况，提出实现我国农业保险和中国农再可持续经营时外部补偿资金的规模和筹集方式。

［关键词］省级农业保险；中国农再；经营风险；系统动力学模拟

［作者简介］吕晓英，北京农学院经管学院教授、博士；庹国柱(通讯作者)，首都经济贸易大学教授、博士生导师；蒲应燕，北京农学院经管学院副教授、博士。

A Research on the Capability of Agricultural Insurer and Reinsurer in Addressing Major Risks

LV Xiaoying,TUO Guozhu,PU Yingyan

Abstract：China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation is positioned as the foundation and core of the agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion mechanism supported by fiscal fund. How large are the operational risks faced by agricultural insurance companies and China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation, and is it necessary to establish a national agricultural insurance catastrophe risk fund? These questions are to be researched and answered. Therefore, this paper took the agricultural insurance statistics of 13 provinces and municipalities with the highest loss ratio in planting and animal husbandry as the representative, and designed a large-scale system dynamics array model of mutual coupling between China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation and agricultural insurers. The operational performances of China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation and relevant agricultural insurers were revealed from 2022 to 2035 under the assumption of various catastrophe risks, through simulating on the 13 scenarios of current reinsurance arrangements and increasing insurance premiums, etc. of China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation. It also estimated the size of external compensation fund for maintaining sustainable operation of agricultural insurance and China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation and proposed on the way of raising such fund.

Key words：agricultural insurance; China Agriculture Reinsurance Corporation; operational risks; simulation of system dynamics