《保险研究》20220301-《商业人身保险能否助力居民消费升级？》（袁成）

［摘   要］本文通过在两期世代交叠模型中加入反映商业人身保险发展的变量，并结合具体险种的不同功能，理论阐述了商业人身保险发展对居民消费“扩容”和“提质”的影响。在此基础上，运用系统GMM估计方法实证检验了商业人身保险在助力居民消费规模扩大、消费结构优化和消费品质提升三方面的具体影响以及人口老龄化在其中的调节作用。研究发现：商业人身保险发展能够扩大居民消费规模，同时可以促进享受型消费支出占比提高、优化消费结构，但没有起到提升消费品质的作用。进一步研究发现，寿险、健康险和意外险的发展，均有助于扩大居民消费规模，在优化居民消费结构方面，寿险的促进作用明显强于健康险，但对于居民消费品质的影响，三者存在异质性。另外，人口老龄化会放大人身保险对居民消费规模的促进作用，但会减小人身保险对居民消费结构优化的正面影响，同时会加深人身保险对居民消费品质提升的抑制作用。

［关键词］人身保险；居民消费升级；人口老龄化

［基金项目］本文得到国家社科基金一般项目(21BGL291)的资助。

［作者简介］袁成，南京大学商学院金融与保险学系副教授，经济学博士，研究方向:商业保险。

Can Commercial Personal Insurance Stimulate Consumption Upgrading？

YUAN Cheng

Abstract：The effect of commercial personal insurance on consumption "expansion" and "quality enhancement" was analyzed theoretically by adding the personal insurance variable into the OLG model,taking into account the different functions of personal insurance.Using system GMM method,the specific effects of personal insurance on people′s consumption expansion,consumption structure optimization,and consumption quality enhancement were further tested empirically,with the consideration of the moderating effects of population aging.The results show that commercial personal insurance can expand consumption scale and optimize consumption structure,including an increase in the share of enjoyment consumption.But it has a restraining effect on the improvement of consumption quality.Life insurance,health insurance and accident insurance are all conducive to the expansion of consumption scale,but life insurance has a larger positive effect on consumption structure than health insurance.Both life and health insurance have negative effects on consumption quality.Accident insurance is not effective in impacting consumption quality or structure.Population aging can amplify the stimulating effect of personal insurance on the expansion of consumption scale,but reduce the positive effect of personal insurance on the optimization of consumption structure.Moreover,it deepens the inhibiting effect of personal insurance on the improvement of consumption quality.

Key words：personal insurance;household consumption upgrading;population aging