《保险研究》20220505-《大灾风险冲击、农业资本积累与农业产出》（邵全权、刘宇）

［摘   要］本文首先建立大灾风险及保障对农业经济影响的理论模型，并在此基础上引入补贴，在大灾冲击的情形下通过数值模拟观察大灾损失与补贴对农业产出和农业资本积累的影响。结果显示大灾损失程度与资本产出负相关，补贴与资本产出正相关，保险能平滑产出的序列。其次，运用2011~2017年的分省面板数据检验大灾冲击对于农业产出与农业资本积累的影响。单方程回归发现总体上大灾损失对于农业产出有负面影响，对于农业资本积累有正面影响，保险保障以及补贴都有利于农业产出及资本积累。同时门槛回归发现大灾损失及补贴对于农业产出和资本积累的影响存在门槛效应，即伴随产出增加越过门槛值，大灾损失对农业产出的负面影响会转变为正向促进，但促进作用并不显著。同时大灾损失必须在资本积累达到一定程度后才会对农业资本产生显著的正面影响，而补贴的促进作用也会伴随产出及资本积累水平的增加而提高。最终，面板工具变量及联立方程模型都得到了相似的结论，说明本文结论具有稳健性。

［关键词］大灾损失；补贴；农业资本积累；农业产出

［基金项目］本文为天津市哲学社会科学规划课题《农业保障体系对农业经济增长及农村反贫困的作用机制研究》(TJYJ18-002),以及课题《农业保险大灾风险分散机制研究》的阶段性成果。本文作者感谢江生忠教授在课题讨论中提出的宝贵意见。

［作者简介］邵全权,南开大学金融学院副教授,经济学博士,研究方向:保险经济学、宏观经济学；刘宇,南开大学金融学院保险学硕士研究生,研究方向:保险经济学、宏观经济学。

Catastrophe Risk Shock,Agricultural Capital Accumulation and Agricultural Output

SHAO Quan-quan,LIU Yu

Abstract：This paper first established a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophe risk and security on agricultural economy,and on this basis introduced subsidies,and observed the impact of disaster losses and subsidies on agricultural output and agricultural capital accumulation through numerical simulation.The results show that the degree of catastrophe loss is negatively correlated with capital output,subsidies are positively correlated with capital output,and insurance can smooth the sequence of output.Secondly,the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2017 were used to test the impact of catastrophic shocks on agricultural output and agricultural capital accumulation.Single equation regression finds that catastrophe losses have a negative impact on agricultural output and a positive impact on agricultural capital accumulation.Insurance and subsidies are conducive to agricultural output and capital accumulation.At the same time,the threshold regression finds that there is a threshold effect on the impact of catastrophe losses and subsidies on agricultural output and capital accumulation,that is,with the increase of output exceeding the threshold value,the negative impact of catastrophe losses on agricultural output will be transformed into a positive promotion,but the promotion effect is not obvious.Meanwhile,catastrophe losses will have a significant positive impact on agricultural capital only after the capital accumulation reaches a certain level,and the promotion effect of subsidies will also increase with the increase of output and capital accumulation.Finally,the panel instrumental variables and the simultaneous equation model have obtained similar conclusions,indicating that the conclusions of this paper are robust.

Key words：catastrophe losses;subsidies;agricultural capital accumulation;agricultural output