《保险研究》20220504-《跨代连结型长期护理保险最优决策研究》（李丹萍、夏佳怡、钱林义、罗勉）

［摘   要］随着我国人口老龄化的不断深化，老龄人口及失能人口的赡养成为亟待解决的经济社会问题。本文基于以家庭为单元的保障模式的理念，以陪护者和年长者连结投保型长期护理保险为切入点，建立了一个包含储蓄、消费、家庭护理、护理保险保额等决策变量的两阶段最优决策模型，考虑陪护者和年长者同时决策和先后决策两种决策方式，并从双方效用最大化的角度出发，得到了二者的最佳投保和护理决策。最后基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据，测算得到了模型的实证解，并研究保费费率和风险规避程度对决策结果的影响。实证分析结果显示，结合实际数据计算出的最优决策变量具有客观性和可行性，本文考虑的连结投保式创新型长期护理保险能够促使投保人做出理性决策，促进长期护理风险的保障和长期护理保险的发展。

［关键词］连结型长期护理保险；效用最大化；家庭护理

［基金项目］本文研究得到中国保险学会2021年度课题项目“连结型长期护理保险设计——基于效用最大化的研究”(ISCKT2021-N-1-07),国家自然科学基金委重点项目“经济管理中复杂数据和复杂行为的分析方法及其应用”(71931004)和国家自然科学基金面上项目“人口老龄化和长寿风险背景下新型年金产品机制创新和最优投资研究”(12171158)的资助。

［作者简介］李丹萍,华东师范大学统计学院副教授、硕士生导师,上海市晨光学者；夏佳怡,华东师范大学统计学院学生；钱林义(通讯作者),华东师范大学统计学院教授、博士生导师,上海市曙光学者；罗勉,大家保险集团发展研究中心总经理。

Optimal Decision-making on Joint Long-term Care Insurance in an Intergenerational Model

LI Dan-ping,XIA Jia-yi,QIAN Lin-yi,LUO Mian

Abstract：With the irreversible development of China′s aging population,the support of the aged and the disabled people has become an urgent economic and social issue.Based on a family provision model,this paper took the long-term care insurance for both the caregiver and the senior as an entry point,and established a two-stage decision-making model including variables such as savings,consumption,home care,and long-term care insurance coverage.Two decision-making methods of the caregiver and the senior were considered,which were simultaneous decision-making and sequential decision-making.Under the objective of maximizing the utilities of both parties,the optimal decisions were obtained.Finally,this paper used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study for empirical analysis,and studied the impacts of premium rates and risk aversion levels on decision-making outcomes.The results show that the innovative joint long-term care insurance can prompt policyholders to make rational decisions,and promote the protection against long-term care risks and the development of long-term care insurance.Moreover,the optimal decision-making variables derived with actual statistics are objective and feasible.

Key words：joint long-term care insurance;utility maximization;home care