《保险研究》20220501-《国家风险、海外投资保险与中国对外直接投资》（闫帅）

［摘   要］本文研究了国家风险、海外投资保险对中国对外直接投资的影响。海外投资保险通过风险补偿效应和保单融资效应影响中国对外直接投资。风险补偿效应对对外直接投资具有促进作用；当保单融资能够降低企业融资成本，或当风险补偿效应能够弥补保单融资导致的融资成本上升时,海外投资保险对对外直接投资具有促进作用；当保单融资成本过高，风险补偿效应无法弥补保单融资导致的融资成本上升时，海外投资保险对对外直接投资具有抑制作用。实证结果显示，东道国国家风险对中国对该国的直接投资具有抑制作用，海外投资保险对中国对该国的直接投资具有促进作用，且国家风险和海外投资保险的影响在中等风险国家和“一带一路”沿线国家尤为明显,海外投资保险在促进资金融通，保障中国企业海外利益方面发挥了重要作用。

［关键词］国家风险；海外投资保险；对外直接投资；“一带一路”

［作者简介］闫帅,中国出口信用保险公司国别风险研究中心,博士。

本文仅代表笔者个人观点，不代表供职机构观点，文责自负。

Country Risk,Foreign Investment Insurance and China′s FDI

YAN Shuai

Abstract：This article studied the impact of country risk and overseas investment insurance on China′s foreign direct investment (FDI).Foreign investment insurance affects China′s FDI through the risk compensation effect and policy financing effect.The risk compensation effect has a promoting effect on foreign direct investment.When policy financing can reduce the financing cost of enterprises,or when the risk compensation effect can make up for the increase in financing costs caused by policy financing,foreign investment insurance can promote foreign direct investment.When the policy financing cost is too high,and the risk compensation effect cannot make up for the rise in financing costs caused by policy financing,foreign investment insurance has an inhibitory effect on foreign direct investment.The empirical results show that the host country′s country risk has an inhibitory effect on China′s FDI,and foreign investment insurance has a promoting effect on China′s FDI to this country.The impact of country risk and foreign investment insurance is particularly obvious in medium-risk countries and countries along the “Belt and Road”.The foreign investment insurance has played an important role in promoting financial integration and protecting the overseas interests of Chinese enterprises.

Key words：country risk;foreign investment insurance;FDI;“Belt and Road”