《保险研究》20220709-《参保选择效应和企业职工基本养老保险基金支出再评估——基于A市2011~2020年职保参保群体生命表的分析》（张翔、王中汉、沈丹丽）

［摘   要］参保者平均预期寿命是影响基本养老保险基金支出的重要因素。以往关于企业职工基本养老保险基金收支的研究都基于城镇居民生命表或国民生命表。事实上,只有部分城镇居民参加了企业职工基本养老保险,而且部分进城务工的农村居民也参加了企业职工基本养老保险。就业参保带来的选择效应可能导致职工基本养老保险参保群体的生命规律不同于全体城镇居民。本文基于A市2011～2020年企业职工基本养老保险的微观参保数据,通过编制职保参保群体生命表,得到A市职保参保群体平均退休余命,并据此对A市职保2021~2050年的基金支出规模进行了重新评估。研究发现,A市职保参保群体60～64岁组平均余命比A市城镇居民长2.16岁,按4%贴现率测算的2021~2050年A市职保基金支出规模现值比按A市城镇居民生命表测算的支出规模现值多37.42亿元,相当于2020年A市职保基金支出、财政总收入和GDP的88.97%、22.15%和3.63%。虽然A市职保参保群体生命表并没有全国代表性,但由此揭示的参保选择效应提醒我们,编制参保群体经验生命表是未来各项基本养老保险基金精算不可忽略的一项基础性工作。

［关键词］参保选择效应；企业职工基本养老保险；参保群体经验生命表；精算分析；基金支出

［基金项目］国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于参保群体寿命差异的基本养老保险收入再分配效应研究”(72174179)；国家社科基金研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神重大项目“发展多层次、多支柱养老保险体系研究”(21ZDA101)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助。

［作者简介］张翔，浙江大学公共管理学院副教授，浙江大学民生保障与公共治理研究中心和浙江大学老龄和健康研究中心专职研究员，研究方向：养老保障与社会救助；王中汉(通讯作者)，浙江大学公共管理学院博士研究生，研究方向：社会保障理论与政策；沈丹丽，浙江大学公共管理学院硕士研究生，研究方向：社会保障理论与政策。

Pension Participation Selection Effect and Re-evaluation of Expenditure of the Basic Pension Schemes for Employees:An Analysis Based on the Pension Participant Life Table in City A from 2011 to 2020

ZHANG Xiang,WANG Zhong-han,SHEN Dan-li

Abstract：The average life expectancy of the pension members is an important factor affecting the expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund.Previous researches on the basic pension schemes for employees (BPSE) were based on the life table of urban residents.In fact,the pension participants of BPSE include both some urban residents and some rural residents who work in the city.The pension participation selection effect may lead to the life table of the BPSE participants to be different from that of urban residents.Based on the micro data of BPSE in City A,we obtained the average life expectancy of the BPSE participants in City A by compiling the life table of them,and re-evaluated the fund expenditure of BPSE in City A from 2021 to 2050.The study found that the average life expectancy of the 60-64 age group of BPSE participants was 2.16 years longer than that of the urban residents in City A.From 2021 to 2050,the present value of the expenditure of the City A′s BPSE fund measured at the 4% discount rate was 3.742 billion yuan more than that of the expenditure calculated by the life table of urban residents in city A,which was equivalent to 88.97%， 22.15% and 3.63% of the fund expenditure,fiscal revenue,and GDP in 2020.Therefore,this study on the pension participation section effect indicates that compiling pension participant life table is a fundamental work in the actuarial research on the basic pension scheme in the future even though the City A case may not be representative for the whole country.

Key words：pension participation selection effect;basic pension schemes for employees;pension participant life table;actuarial analysis;fund expenditure