《保险研究》20250207-《农业保险对农村产业融合的影响机制研究》（魏超、陈盛伟、牛浩、李政）

［摘   要］农村产业融合是构建现代农业产业体系、建设农业强国的重要举措，作为农业风险管理的核心工具，农业保险要为农村产业融合发展保驾护航。本文基于2009~2021年26个省(区、市)的面板数据，利用面板固定效应等模型实证分析了农业保险对农村产业融合的影响。研究发现：农业保险能够显著促进农村产业融合发展，这一结论在经过内生性处理和稳健性检验之后依然成立。机制分析表明，农业保险通过激励农户增加土地、资金、技术要素的投入，促进了农村产业融合发展。进一步分析发现，数字普惠金融在农业保险促进农村产业融合发展中发挥了正向门槛效应，即随着数字普惠金融发展水平的提高，农业保险的促进效果逐渐增强。异质性分析表明，农业保险对农村产业融合的促进效果在粮食主产区和低财政压力区更明显。因此，建议设置多层次、阶梯化的动态保额，发展农业全产业链保险，探索“数字普惠金融+农业保险”模式，以促进农村产业融合发展。

［关键词］农业保险；农村产业融合；要素配置；数字普惠金融

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金重点项目“基于规模、结构、效率‘三位一体’的我国农业保险政策优化研究”(23AGL026),国家社会科学基金青年项目“数字赋能农业保险精准理赔的机制、障碍与路径研究”(24CGL076),山东省自然科学基金面上项目“农业保险高质量发展效率的多维测度、影响机理及提升路径研究”(ZR2023MG068),山东省社会科学规划研究项目“农业保险高质量发展对‘齐鲁粮仓’建设的保障机理与政策优化研究”(24DGLJ28)。

［作者简介］魏超，山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院)博士研究生，研究方向：农业保险；陈盛伟，山东理工大学经济学院教授，研究方向：农业保险；牛浩(通讯作者)，山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院)副教授，研究方向：农业保险；李政，山东农业大学经济管理学院(商学院)讲师，研究方向：农业保险。

The Impact Mechanism of Agricultural Insurance on Rural Industry Integration

WEI Chao,CHEN Sheng-wei,NIU Hao,LI Zheng

Abstract：Rural industry integration is an important measure to build a modern agricultural industry system and a strong agricultural power.As a core tool for agricultural risk management,agricultural insurance should provide protection for the development of rural industry integration.This article is based on panel data from 26 provinces (regions,municipalities) from 2009 to 2021,and uses panel fixed effects and other models to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural insurance on rural industrial integration.The research has found that agricultural insurance can significantly promote the integrated development of rural industries,and this conclusion still holds true after endogeneity treatment and robustness testing.Mechanism analysis shows that agricultural insurance promotes the integrated development of rural industries by incentivizing farmers to increase their investment in land,capital,and technological factors.Further analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance has played a positive threshold effect in promoting the integrated development of rural industries through agricultural insurance,meaning that as the level of digital inclusive finance development increases,the promotion effect of agricultural insurance gradually strengthens.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of agricultural insurance on rural industrial integration is more significant in major grain producing areas and areas with low fiscal pressure.Therefore,it is recommended to establish multi-level and tiered dynamic insurance coverage,develop agricultural full-industry chain insurance,and explore the “digital inclusive finance+agricultural insurance” model to promote the integrated development of rural industries.

Key words：agricultural insurance;integration of rural industries;element configuration;digital inclusive finance