《保险研究》20190206-《信贷、保险、“信贷+保险”的扶贫效果比较研究》（廖朴、吕刘、贺晔平）

［摘   要］农村金融是农村经济发展的重要内生动力,创新金融扶贫体制对我国农村深度贫困地区的脱贫攻坚工作具有重要意义。本文基于多重均衡模型,对比研究信贷、保险、“信贷+保险”三类金融产品的扶贫效果,在不同的信贷和保险产品结构下得出陷贫概率,进而得出金融扶贫产品的精准设计,以创新金融扶贫体制,从而解决我国深度贫困的问题。研究表明:单独信贷产品扶贫无效；保险能够帮助阈值以上人群摆脱潜在贫困,但对深度贫困无效；“信贷+保险”能解决一定程度的深度贫困问题,比单独信贷或单独保险的扶贫效果更好。

［关键词］多重均衡模型；精准扶贫；农村金融

［作者简介］廖朴,中央财经大学中国精算研究院副教授,研究方向:农业经济;吕刘(通讯作者),中央财经大学保险学院博士,研究方向:农业保险与农村金融;贺晔平,中央财经大学保险学院博士,研究方向:保险精算。

A Comparison Study on the Poverty Alleviation Effects of Credit,Insurance and “Credit + Insurance”

LIAO Pu,LÜ Liu,HE Yeping

Abstract：Rural finance is an important endogenous driving force for rural economic development.It is of great significance to innovate the financial poverty alleviation system for the work of poverty alleviation in the poverty-stricken areas in China.In order to innovate the financial poverty alleviation system and crack the hard nut of destitution,this paper,on the basis of the multiple equilibrium model,compared the poverty alleviation effects of credit,insurance and “credit+ insurance” financial products,arrived at the bankruptcy probability of different credit and insurance products,and got the accurate design of financial poverty alleviation products.Studies have shown that:credit products alone are ineffective in poverty alleviation;insurance can help people above the threshold to completely cast off potential poverty,but not for those in deep poverty;“credit +insurance” can solve the problem of deep poverty to a certain extent,which has better poverty alleviation effect than credit alone or insurance alone.

Key words：multiple equilibrium models;accurate poverty alleviation;rural finance