《保险研究》20190208-《经济增长、社会医疗保险和国民健康的相互影响——基于FAVAR模型的实证研究》（周小菲、薛建礼、陈滔）

［摘   要］“健康中国”战略旨在提高全体国民的健康水平,而健康水平的提高取决于多种因素的共同作用。从目前的研究现状看,经济增长和医疗保险都是影响健康的重要因素。为了解答在我国建设健康中国的大环境下,经济增长和医疗保险的共同作用会对健康产生什么影响以及三者的关系如何,本文采用我国1999～2014年关于经济增长、医疗保险和健康的三类变量共14个时间序列,构建FAVAR模型对，三者的相互作用以及动态变化规律进行研究。研究结果表明:我国经济增长、医疗保险和国民健康之间存在长期协整关系,经济增长和医疗保险对国民健康起到促进作用,且医疗保险的作用大于经济增长的作用；国民健康和医疗保险的提高在短期能够促进经济增长,但长期影响不显著；经济增长对于医疗保险的影响不显著,国民健康的提高会引起医疗保险的短期下降,但长期影响不显著。

［关键词］国民健康；医疗保险；经济增长

［基金项目］本文为2016年中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(JBK1607052)的阶段性成果。

［作者简介］周小菲,西南财经大学博士研究生,研究方向:健康保险与卫生经济；薛建礼,西南财经大学博士研究生,研究方向:保险制度与监管；陈滔,西南财经大学保险学院院长、教授、博士生导师,研究方向:健康保险、卫生经济、保险精算等。

The Relationship Between Economic Growth,Social Medical Insurance and National Health—Based the Empirical Research Using FAVAR Model

ZHOU Xiao-fei,XUE Jian-li,CHEN Tao

Abstract：The “Healthy China” strategy aims to improve the nation’s health,which depends on the joint action of many factors.From the current researches,economic growth and medical insurance are both important factors affecting health status.In order to find out what’s the joint impacts of economic growth and medical insurance on health status and how to deal with the relationship among them,this paper used14 time series of the three variants of economic growth,medical insurance and health during 1999-2014 to construct a FAVAR model to find out their relationship.The results showed that(1) there was a long-term co-integration relationship among economic growth,medical insurance and national health.Economic growth and medical insurance played a certain role in promoting national health,and the role of medical insurance is greater than that of economic growth.(2) The improvement of national health and medical insurance can promote economic growth in the short term,but the long-term effect was not significant.(3) Economic growth had little impact on medical insurance,but improving national health could cause a temporary decline in medical insurance in the short term,but had little impact on medical insurance in the long term.

Key words：national health;medical insurance;economic growth