《保险研究》20190403-《中国农房地震指数保险指标设计研究》（李曼、田玲、方建、贺帅、孔锋）

［摘   要］中国地震灾害发生频率高、范围广、强度高、震源浅、空间异质性高,造成了大量的人员伤亡和经济损失。相对于发达国家,中国地震灾害风险管理更多依赖政府救援。因此,中国政府和学界开始积极探索地震保险的重要作用,将其视为综合风险防范中关键的组成部分。作为一种创新型的市场驱动地震灾害风险分散工具,地震指数保险能够为灾后救助和恢复重建快速提供充足的资金。选择合适的保险指数是地震指数保险产品设计中至关重要的环节。因此,本文以农房为研究对象,通过梳理地震灾害系统和成灾致损的关键过程,构建地震指数保险指标体系,并从数据可获取性及时空覆盖度、效率、居民认知度和基差风险等角度对不同的地震指数进行对比分析,选择适用于中国农房地震指数保险的最优指数。

［关键词］地震指数保险；农房；指标体系

［基金项目］本文受中国博士后科学基金项目“中国地震指数保险体系构建与定价研究”(2017M622489)和国家自然科学基金委员会面上项目“基于指数化结构的地震风险管理研究”(71673206)资助。

［作者简介］李曼,前海金融控股有限公司和武汉大学联合培养博士后,研究方向：灾害风险管理；田玲,武汉大学经济与管理学院教授,博士生导师；方建,博士,武汉大学资源与环境科学学院讲师,研究方向:气候变化与灾害风险；贺帅,博士,四川大学灾后重建与管理学院讲师,研究方向：灾害风险分析和灾后重建规划管理和应急疏散；孔锋,清华大学公共管理学院应急管理研究基地博士后,研究方向：气候变化与极端降水。

The Index Design of Seismic Index Insurance for Rural Residential Housing in China

LI Man,TIAN Ling,FANG Jian,HE Shuai,KONG Feng

Abstract：Seismic disasters in China are characterized by high frequency,large scale,high intensity,shallow depth,spatial heterogeneity,and tremendous casualties and damages. Compared to developed countries,earthquake disaster management in China mainly  relied on government relief. Therefore,Chinese government and researchers are actively exploring the importance of seismic insurance serving as one of the critical components of integrated risk governance. As an innovative market-oriented seismic risk financing measure,seismic index insurance is able to provide quick access to sufficient funds for disaster relief and reconstruction effectively. Selecting the appropriate insurance index is the key issue in seismic index insurance product design. Consequently,this paper firstly offered an overview of the seismic disaster system and the key process of losses due to earthquakes,and then used rural residential housing as insurance object to construct an index system for seismic insurance. It also conducted a comparative analysis on different seismic indexes from the perspectives of data availability,spatial and temporal coverage,efficiency,residents’ perception and basis risk,etc.,and made suggestions on the optimal indexes for rural residential housing seismic index insurance in China.

Key words：seismic index insurance;rural building;index system