《保险研究》20190404-《中国保险业具有持续的经济增长促进作用吗？——基于期限结构视角的时变参数研究》（彭雪梅、崔微微）

［摘   要］保险业促进经济发展的相关理论及由实践经验数据所得结论并未达成一致共识,部分学者认为保险业的发展有助于推动经济增长；同时也有部分学者认为保险业的经济助推作用并不明显。本文基于1999～2017年财险和寿险月度数据,运用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)研究保险业对经济增长的促进作用,得出如下结论:整体上,保险业对经济增长能够产生促进效应,并且随着保险业的发展,促进作用愈发显著；财险和寿险的发展均对经济增长产生显著地直接促进作用,在不同的期限结构时点,其持续程度与显著程度不同；此外,保险业对经济增长还存在持续的间接促进作用。该结论对于新常态下的保险监管政策制定者存在一定借鉴意义。

［关键词］中国保险业；经济增长；期限结构；TVP-VAR

［基金项目］本文得到西南财经大学2018年中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金项目(JBK1807018)的资助。

［作者简介］彭雪梅,西南财经大学保险学院教授，博士生导师,研究方向:保险财务与会计；崔微微,西南财经大学保险学院博士研究生,研究方向:风险管理与保险。

Does Insurance in China Help to Promote Economic Growth Continuously?—Based on Time-Varying Parameter Study from the Perspective of Term Structure

PENG Xue-mei,CUI Wei-wei

Abstract：There is no consistency between the relevant theories of the insurance industry promoting economic development and the conclusions drawn from the practical data. Some scholars believe that the development of insurance industry helps to promote economic growth. At the same time,some other scholars believe that the economy boosting effect of the insurance industry is not visible. Based on the monthly premium data of general insurance and life insurance in the years of 1999~2017,and using the time-varying parameter vector from the regression model (TVP-VAR),the paper studied the promotion effect of the insurance industry on economic growth,and came up with the following conclusions:the insurance industry could produce a boosting effect on economic growth,and the effect would be more prominent with the development of the insurance industry;the development of both property insurance and life insurance had a significant direct promotion effect on economic growth,with different significance at different time points of term structure;in addition,the insurance industry had a continuous indirect promotion effect on economic growth. These conclusions have some reference significance for the policy makers of insurance supervision under the new normal.

Key words：China’s insurance industry;economic growth;term structure;TVP-VAR