《保险研究》20190409-《基于GM(1,1)模型的城乡居民基本养老保险参保率测算》（许燕、杨再贵）

［摘   要］本文依据国发〔2014〕8号文件规定,利用统计年鉴数据对2012～2016年城乡居民养老保险缴费人群和领取待遇人群的总参保率进行测算,并结合灰色GM(1,1) 模型对未来缴费人群的总参保率进行预测,运用规划求解方法对缴费人群总参保率进行分解得分年龄参保率。研究结果表明:首先,2012～2016年缴费人群总参保率在持续上升,若保持这种参保积极性,那么到2030年符合参保条件的人口可全部参保。其次,2012～2016年领取待遇人群总参保率总体呈上升趋势,2015年略有下降,总参保率平均值达到了96.50%,城乡居民养老保险符合领取待遇条件的人口基本实现全参保。缴费人群分年龄参保率的研究为城乡居民养老保险的人口预测及基金收支测算等提供了研究基础。

［关键词］城乡居民养老保险；GM(1,1)模型；参保率

［基金项目］国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BJY143)。

［作者简介］许燕,中央财经大学中国精算研究院博士生,渤海大学经济学院副教授；杨再贵,中央财经大学中国精算研究院教授、博士生导师。

A Projection of Participation Rate of Basic Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents Based on the Grey GM(1,1) Model

XU Yan，YANG Zai-gui

Abstract：According to the provisions of document No.8 ［2014］ issued by the State Council,the statistical yearbook data was used to calculate the total participation rates of current urban and rural residents' pension insurance contributors and the benefit recipients from 2012 to 2016,and the total participation rates of future contributors were predicted by combining the grey model(1,1),and the total participation rates of future contributors were decomposed by using the planning and solving method. The results showed that:first of all,from 2012 to 2016 the total participation rates of contributors were continuously rising. If such momentum was sustained,the population that met the conditions for participation would be fully enrolled by 2030. Secondly,the total participation rate of the benefit recipients from 2012 to 2016 showed an upward trend,only dropped slightly in 2015,and the average participation rate reached 96.50%. The eligible urban and rural residents' pension insurance recipients basically achieved full coverage. Finally,the study on the participation rate of the contributors by age provided a research basis for the population forecast and fund income and expenditure calculation of urban and rural residents' pension insurance.

Key words：pension insurance for urban and rural residents;Grey GM(1,1) model;participation rate