《保险研究》20190505-《新型农村社会养老保险对贫困群体生活的影响——基于CHARLS 2011~2015面板数据的分析》（张跃华、王翌宵）

［摘   要］本文探讨了新型农村社会养老保险是否对低收入的贫困群体的生活产生更显著的效用,从而论证该制度是否助力扶贫工作。因为养老金是收入的组成部分,而收入有边际效用递减的特点,因此养老金对不同收入群体的效用可能存在差别。本文按家庭人均收入水平区分贫困与非贫困群体,基于CHARLS 2011~2015年数据,采用多维贫困指标,使用断点回归发现新农保养老金对贫困参保群体在食品消费方面产生更显著的效用,有助于扶贫工作。并使用含复杂时变效应的二元变量模型,进一步发现该效用在养老金开始发放时显现。本文结论有利于认识新农保政策对扶贫的作用,并将扶贫工作和已有的社会保险政策结合,以提高扶贫工作效率。

［关键词］新农保；扶贫；断点回归；复杂时变效应

［基金项目］本研究受到浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ17G030001)、国家自然科学基金(71373228)、中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金、浙江大学文科教师教学科研发展专项项目以及浙江省保险学会(2019021)资助。

［作者简介］张跃华,浙江大学民生保障与公共治理研究中心教授，研究方向：保险经济学；王翌宵,中国人民大学财政金融学院硕士研究生。

The Influence of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance on Poverty-stricken Population—Based on an analysis of CHARLS 2011-2015 panel data

ZHANG Yue-hua,WANG Y-ixiao

Abstract：This paper examined whether the new rural social pension insurance benefited the poverty-stricken group in order to find out whether it was effective for poverty alleviation. Pensions are part of personal income and have the characteristic of diminishing marginal utility,so the impact of pensions varies for different income groups. Based on the data of CHARLS 2011-2015 and dividing groups by per-capita average income of families,this paper applied the multi-dimensional poverty indicator and breakpoint regression method. The results showed that the new rural social pension insurance had a greater positive impact on food consumption of poor groups,so it helped alleviate poverty. Then the time-varying effect method was applied which illustrated that this effect appeared as soon as the pension was delivered. The conclusions indicated the benefits of new rural social pension insurance on poverty alleviation and would help to lift the efficiency of government poverty alleviation work.

Key words：new rural social pension insurance；poverty alleviation；breakpoint regression；time-varying effects