《保险研究》20190506-《商业医疗保险能提高农民工消费吗——基于流动人口动态监测数据的实证分析》（文乐、李琴、周志鹏）

［摘   要］本文使用国家卫生计生委2014年流动人口动态监测调查和与其相匹配的城市宏观数据,利用倾向得分匹配法并结合处理效应模型,系统探究了商业医疗保险对农民工消费的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：(1)商业医疗保险对农民工人均家庭消费具有显著的正向影响；(2)其作用机制在于,商业医疗保险减少了农民工医疗方面的支出不确定性,从而降低了预防性储蓄,使得消费增加；(3)分组回归结果显示,商业医疗保险对农民工消费的影响还存在异质性,其中,高收入群体、“70后”、或来自省内的农民工受商业医疗保险的正向影响更大。

［关键词］商业医疗保险；消费；农民工；倾向得分匹配；处理效应模型

［基金项目］本文受广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(编号：GD18XYJ26)、华南农业大学青年科技人才培育专项基金(编号：6400-218247)的资助。

［作者简介］文乐,博士,华南农业大学经济管理学院讲师,研究方向：城市经济学、发展经济学；李琴,博士,华南农业大学经济管理学院副教授,研究方向：劳动经济学、社会保障；周志鹏,山东大学经济研究院博士研究生,研究方向：城市经济学、发展经济学。

Can Commercial Medical Insurance Promote Rural Migrant Workers′ Consumption—An Empirical Research Based on the Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data

WEN Le,LI Qin,ZHOU Zhi-peng

Abstract：Using the National Dynamic Monitoring Survey Data of Migrant Population in 2014 with the matched macro data at the city level,this paper analyzed the influence of commercial medical insurance on the consumption of migrant workers and its mechanism systematically. Moreover,the propensity score matching and the treatment effects model were applied to overcome the endogenous problems. The main research findings are as follows:(1) Commercial medical insurance has a significant positive effect on the per capita household consumption of migrant workers. (2) The mechanism lies in that commercial medical insurance greatly reduces the uncertainty of medical expenditure of migrant workers,thus reducing precautionary savings and increasing consumption. (3) Grouping regression results show that commercial medical insurance has heterogeneous effects on the consumption of migrant workers,and the positive impacts on high income group,post-1970s group and intra-provincial migrant workers are more significant.

Key words：commercial medical insurance;consumption;migrants workers;propensity score;treatment effects model